Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera



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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Jan2.1110.8440.3310.3161.21914.904
Jan-Feb3.7331.1421.4430.3942.59621.447
Jan-Mar5.1131.3744.8660.4803.30324.749

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.12910.589
204.5977.293
303.6985.670
403.0834.460
502.5263.605
602.1132.858
701.7232.287
801.3271.762
900.8571.216

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.38224.412
210.10519.141
39.05617.284
48.30715.851
57.82914.846
67.32713.524
76.93212.648
86.64111.868
96.38811.124
106.12910.589
115.95110.159
125.7669.698
135.5639.358
145.3789.026
155.2138.671
165.0748.395
174.9138.081
184.7997.768
194.7027.500
204.5977.293
214.5097.096
224.4116.882
234.2946.734
244.1876.522
254.0896.391
264.0046.280
273.9346.113
283.8565.982
293.7695.832
303.6985.670
313.6355.523
323.5785.377
333.5065.263
343.4395.152
353.3605.002
363.3014.884
373.2484.767
383.1874.660
393.1324.573
403.0834.460
413.0264.352
422.9734.273
432.9144.206
442.8564.116
452.8024.036
462.7553.947
472.6963.868
482.6383.765
492.5773.688
502.5263.605
512.4723.531
522.4283.458
532.3883.373
542.3553.292
552.3123.211
562.2693.114
572.2263.058
582.1893.001
592.1592.939
602.1132.858
612.0762.779
622.0472.721
632.0052.668
641.9552.603
651.9172.553
661.8812.502
671.8452.455
681.8092.394
691.7662.331
701.7232.287
711.6912.226
721.6422.178
731.6112.122
741.5622.072
751.5252.018
761.4941.969
771.4551.916
781.4161.868
791.3701.822
801.3271.762
811.2801.706
821.2361.653
831.1761.593
841.1341.543
851.0931.500
861.0431.442
870.9991.383
880.9521.336
890.9081.279
900.8571.216
910.8151.158
920.7551.089
930.7061.016
940.6480.927
950.5700.863
960.4800.789
970.3810.681
980.2880.587
990.1300.476


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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