Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera


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Product list for Cotter River at Gingera



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Historical and exceedance probability for Cotter River at Gingera ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1964+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1968) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1984) (GL)
Jan2.0730.3316.9670.3160.95014.904
Jan-Feb3.6841.44314.7350.3942.34421.447
Jan-Mar5.1084.86619.5730.4803.30824.749

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.18610.589
2014.4737.293
3012.2765.670
4010.5584.460
509.0243.605
607.7272.858
706.4792.287
805.2311.762
903.7651.216

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
130.77524.412
226.13019.141
324.16417.284
422.90815.851
521.52614.846
620.58813.524
719.93212.648
819.21111.868
918.65211.124
1018.18610.589
1117.68010.159
1217.1339.698
1316.6399.358
1416.3299.026
1515.9688.671
1615.5948.395
1715.3358.081
1815.0177.768
1914.7217.500
2014.4737.293
2114.1877.096
2213.9226.882
2313.6596.734
2413.4256.522
2513.2116.391
2613.0166.280
2712.8026.113
2812.6155.982
2912.4525.832
3012.2765.670
3112.1085.523
3211.9505.377
3311.7435.263
3411.5895.152
3511.3815.002
3611.1914.884
3711.0084.767
3810.8554.660
3910.7394.573
4010.5584.460
4110.4104.352
4210.2174.273
4310.0424.206
449.8844.116
459.7424.036
469.5783.947
479.4363.868
489.2993.765
499.1653.688
509.0243.605
518.8843.531
528.7753.458
538.6363.373
548.4873.292
558.3623.211
568.1933.114
578.0803.058
587.9603.001
597.8342.939
607.7272.858
617.6092.779
627.4952.721
637.3452.668
647.1942.603
657.1162.553
666.9762.502
676.8512.455
686.7032.394
696.6092.331
706.4792.287
716.3672.226
726.2492.178
736.1352.122
746.0142.072
755.9242.018
765.8031.969
775.6411.916
785.4891.868
795.3611.822
805.2311.762
815.0881.706
824.9491.653
834.8391.593
844.6641.543
854.4891.500
864.3431.442
874.2021.383
884.0391.336
893.9191.279
903.7651.216
913.6031.158
923.4541.089
933.2561.016
943.0900.927
952.8400.863
962.5570.789
972.3610.681
982.0520.587
991.6180.476


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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