Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1034.45543.557
2027.24328.982
3022.54421.915
4019.33916.767
5016.58713.222
6014.23610.205
7012.0977.965
809.8595.970
907.1853.980

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
162.113101.704
252.71080.396
348.56372.626
444.69966.536
542.35862.212
639.86156.476
738.26852.641
836.72049.208
935.59645.928
1034.45543.557
1133.49341.652
1232.51439.610
1331.50938.105
1430.88936.634
1530.10035.059
1629.38233.840
1728.87132.451
1828.34131.074
1927.77329.892
2027.24328.982
2126.69928.119
2226.19027.178
2325.65626.532
2425.09525.607
2524.58325.038
2624.04724.555
2723.58323.829
2823.13023.263
2922.81522.615
3022.54421.915
3122.18021.286
3221.93220.659
3321.53220.171
3421.27219.698
3520.85419.058
3620.48518.556
3720.21118.063
3819.89317.610
3919.54817.243
4019.33916.767
4119.06116.314
4218.77215.982
4318.47415.706
4418.17815.331
4517.91714.998
4617.63814.630
4717.36214.301
4817.09213.877
4916.85613.560
5016.58713.222
5116.28412.919
5216.06612.619
5315.84212.273
5415.63411.946
5515.42111.619
5615.19111.229
5714.99511.001
5814.72610.774
5914.49710.526
6014.23610.205
6114.0189.890
6213.7479.662
6313.5309.452
6413.3259.197
6513.1569.000
6612.9668.801
6712.7638.617
6812.5478.379
6912.3368.137
7012.0977.965
7111.8717.732
7211.6697.547
7311.4237.332
7411.1917.142
7511.0046.934
7610.7066.749
7710.4606.550
7810.2796.368
7910.0976.195
809.8595.970
819.5775.761
829.3365.565
839.1305.344
848.8715.161
858.6585.003
868.3834.793
878.0884.578
887.7694.407
897.4524.204
907.1853.980
916.8863.773
926.6013.531
936.2513.276
945.8272.969
955.4632.751
964.9752.502
974.4882.143
983.9471.836
993.1331.480


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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