Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.12944.239
2020.93230.310
3016.91822.909
4013.88517.317
5011.67413.422
609.80510.122
708.1197.706
806.3885.601
904.5283.569

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.63887.475
247.77773.074
342.73067.521
439.15663.012
536.57959.711
634.36755.185
732.45152.054
830.67849.170
929.26246.336
1028.12944.239
1127.17542.520
1226.26040.647
1325.24339.243
1424.50637.852
1523.86236.342
1623.17135.158
1722.40733.793
1821.84732.422
1921.40931.234
2020.93230.310
2120.38929.428
2219.92628.458
2319.57327.788
2419.18126.824
2518.79026.227
2618.41725.718
2718.09124.951
2817.72624.349
2917.35623.659
3016.91822.909
3116.57022.233
3216.23521.557
3315.85421.029
3415.55620.516
3515.24819.821
3614.95919.274
3714.72518.736
3814.44918.241
3914.15617.839
4013.88517.317
4113.60316.820
4213.33416.456
4313.16016.153
4412.94215.741
4512.73915.375
4612.49014.971
4712.31214.608
4812.07114.142
4911.89013.794
5011.67413.422
5111.45313.090
5211.24412.761
5311.06512.381
5410.90612.023
5510.71811.665
5610.54411.238
5710.37010.990
5810.23110.741
5910.06210.471
609.80510.122
619.6259.780
629.4309.533
639.2729.305
649.0929.029
658.8938.817
668.7158.603
678.5548.404
688.4088.149
698.2767.890
708.1197.706
717.9467.457
727.7637.261
737.5967.033
747.4426.831
757.2256.611
767.0576.416
776.8706.207
786.7016.016
796.5505.835
806.3885.601
816.2715.384
826.0935.181
835.9434.953
845.7284.764
855.5174.603
865.3754.389
875.1824.171
884.9423.998
894.7433.793
904.5283.569
914.2943.363
924.0713.124
933.8242.874
943.5752.576
953.3052.366
962.9952.129
972.6921.791
982.3361.508
991.6981.186


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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