Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.40338.773
2013.19325.249
3010.53518.703
408.78513.996
507.33410.811
606.1308.153
705.1066.221
804.0484.542
902.8692.917

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.93489.624
228.82471.601
325.68364.872
423.89759.527
522.17255.692
620.86150.553
719.81247.085
818.90843.959
918.11240.954
1017.40338.773
1116.84337.014
1216.25835.126
1315.67233.731
1415.23332.365
1514.83830.902
1614.48129.768
1714.13528.476
1813.77727.194
1913.42426.096
2013.19325.249
2112.87024.447
2212.59823.573
2312.31822.973
2412.07022.116
2511.76021.588
2611.48821.141
2711.22720.470
2810.96619.946
2910.74319.348
3010.53518.703
3110.37018.124
3210.14717.548
339.96417.101
349.81616.667
359.64816.082
369.47115.624
379.30215.174
389.09214.762
398.91414.428
408.78513.996
418.58013.586
428.44413.287
438.28113.037
448.10512.700
458.00312.400
467.85312.070
477.70511.774
487.56711.395
497.43411.112
507.33410.811
517.19610.541
527.05910.275
536.9549.969
546.8349.680
556.7229.392
566.5889.048
576.4548.849
586.3508.649
596.2318.433
606.1308.153
615.9997.878
625.9147.681
635.8237.499
645.7287.278
655.6407.109
665.5506.937
675.4276.779
685.3406.575
695.2166.368
705.1066.221
714.9966.023
724.9055.866
734.8095.684
744.7195.523
754.6085.347
764.4765.192
774.3755.025
784.2544.873
794.1524.728
804.0484.542
813.9414.368
823.8294.206
833.7004.024
843.5763.874
853.4413.745
863.3563.573
873.2463.399
883.1133.260
892.9903.096
902.8692.917
912.7242.751
922.5692.559
932.3812.358
942.2062.118
952.0121.949
961.8701.757
971.6891.483
981.4221.253
991.0230.990


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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