Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.12143.557
2021.22828.982
3017.44921.915
4014.87116.767
5012.73013.222
6010.85710.205
709.2087.965
807.3955.970
905.3283.980

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
149.890101.704
241.92980.396
338.78772.626
435.45066.536
533.54862.212
631.45256.476
730.12652.641
828.85249.208
928.07845.928
1027.12143.557
1126.19941.652
1225.32839.610
1324.66738.105
1424.06236.634
1523.46635.059
1623.06533.840
1722.54332.451
1822.03731.074
1921.58429.892
2021.22828.982
2120.83228.119
2220.29827.178
2319.92126.532
2419.53525.607
2519.08325.038
2618.72524.555
2718.33123.829
2818.04523.263
2917.69822.615
3017.44921.915
3117.24021.286
3216.96620.659
3316.73220.171
3416.47319.698
3516.15319.058
3615.87418.556
3715.62818.063
3815.39117.610
3915.11417.243
4014.87116.767
4114.61316.314
4214.44815.982
4314.24215.706
4414.02715.331
4513.82714.998
4613.59614.630
4713.38914.301
4813.14913.877
4913.00213.560
5012.73013.222
5112.48512.919
5212.26512.619
5312.11312.273
5411.93311.946
5511.75711.619
5611.61011.229
5711.48011.001
5811.27810.774
5911.08110.526
6010.85710.205
6110.7049.890
6210.5119.662
6310.3509.452
6410.1859.197
6510.0169.000
669.8858.801
679.7348.617
689.5208.379
699.3688.137
709.2087.965
719.0197.732
728.8597.547
738.6897.332
748.5107.142
758.3316.934
768.1636.749
777.9556.550
787.7526.368
797.6206.195
807.3955.970
817.2525.761
827.0095.565
836.8555.344
846.6505.161
856.4745.003
866.2804.793
876.0234.578
885.7664.407
895.5694.204
905.3283.980
915.1003.773
924.8563.531
934.6223.276
944.2462.969
953.9492.751
963.5892.502
973.2482.143
982.8161.836
992.1471.480


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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