Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.19835.164
2014.43523.110
3010.48916.146
407.79410.858
506.0337.398
604.7014.775
703.4153.110
802.3761.876
901.3500.913

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.65267.381
234.61057.073
331.51853.029
429.02849.702
527.17247.237
625.54943.805
724.26341.388
823.32339.126
922.23736.865
1021.19835.164
1120.19433.751
1219.08832.189
1318.43531.003
1417.57829.814
1516.96528.507
1616.22127.470
1715.78426.261
1815.34525.032
1914.81623.955
2014.43523.110
2113.96822.297
2213.53821.397
2313.19720.771
2412.75219.866
2512.38219.303
2611.97018.821
2711.59018.093
2811.20417.521
2910.85616.862
3010.48916.146
3110.14415.501
329.83714.855
339.54514.352
349.24213.863
358.98013.204
368.76012.686
378.51612.180
388.26511.716
398.00711.341
407.79410.858
417.60210.401
427.41510.069
437.2529.793
447.0189.422
456.8829.095
466.7138.736
476.5188.418
486.3428.012
496.1927.713
506.0337.398
515.9187.118
525.7686.844
535.6326.533
545.5126.243
555.3835.957
565.2105.622
575.1035.429
584.9795.239
594.8345.035
604.7014.775
614.5564.524
624.4084.347
634.2904.185
644.1603.992
654.0483.845
663.9183.699
673.7823.566
683.6483.396
693.5323.228
703.4153.110
713.2902.953
723.1712.831
733.0742.691
742.9592.571
752.8632.441
762.7602.328
772.6742.209
782.5882.102
792.5102.002
802.3761.876
812.2581.762
822.1711.657
832.0841.543
841.9921.450
851.8851.373
861.8041.272
871.7091.173
881.6081.096
891.4861.007
901.3500.913
911.2560.829
921.1460.736
931.0630.643
940.9450.537
950.8340.467
960.6960.392
970.5910.292
980.4580.217
990.2740.140


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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