Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.95427.188
2012.05515.183
308.71410.041
406.4496.738
504.8714.718
603.7493.187
702.7742.188
801.9021.399
901.0870.727

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
146.15376.148
236.84158.977
332.42452.418
429.14547.244
526.43943.392
624.27338.467
722.54435.125
821.20532.099
920.12929.238
1018.95427.188
1118.07725.555
1217.19023.829
1316.16222.558
1415.40021.315
1514.74520.014
1614.07519.030
1713.55017.899
1813.11016.798
1912.55215.879
2012.05515.183
2111.64414.527
2211.25313.795
2310.89813.338
2410.53512.652
2510.24512.245
269.93411.898
279.54711.369
289.28010.964
298.99810.528
308.71410.041
318.4539.621
328.1599.191
337.9028.871
347.6858.576
357.4288.155
367.2427.843
377.0767.531
386.8937.254
396.6617.027
406.4496.738
416.2566.466
426.0666.273
435.8936.108
445.7475.893
455.5605.703
465.4365.491
475.2875.311
485.1355.076
495.0064.899
504.8714.718
514.7124.556
524.6014.401
534.4994.215
544.3684.053
554.2693.877
564.1673.689
574.0733.576
583.9593.463
593.8633.345
603.7493.187
613.6443.042
623.5522.938
633.4422.840
643.3422.726
653.2602.638
663.1532.549
673.0412.468
682.9532.365
692.8782.261
702.7742.188
712.6712.090
722.5762.014
732.4811.926
742.3911.849
752.3161.766
762.2251.694
772.1271.617
782.0401.547
791.9681.482
801.9021.399
811.8091.322
821.7441.252
831.6751.174
841.5831.110
851.5101.056
861.4450.986
871.3660.915
881.2660.860
891.1710.796
901.0870.727
911.0030.665
920.9120.594
930.8290.522
940.7470.438
950.6170.381
960.5090.319
970.4100.234
980.2890.166
990.1180.094


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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