Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.00538.773
2016.85925.249
3013.57718.703
4011.34013.996
509.52010.811
607.9828.153
706.7126.221
805.3254.542
903.8202.917

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
143.64089.624
235.39971.601
331.90764.872
429.62659.527
527.95955.692
626.27550.553
725.09547.085
823.88543.959
922.93740.954
1022.00538.773
1121.44337.014
1220.70435.126
1320.06233.731
1419.46532.365
1518.91430.902
1618.54229.768
1718.09928.476
1817.58927.194
1917.23526.096
2016.85925.249
2116.53224.447
2216.13623.573
2315.78322.973
2415.42722.116
2515.12521.588
2614.78521.141
2714.41320.470
2814.15219.946
2913.86419.348
3013.57718.703
3113.33218.124
3213.09617.548
3312.89317.101
3412.69116.667
3512.42616.082
3612.22215.624
3712.04815.174
3811.79614.762
3911.55514.428
4011.34013.996
4111.14813.586
4210.92413.287
4310.73213.037
4410.56712.700
4510.36412.400
4610.16912.070
479.99011.774
489.80911.395
499.67911.112
509.52010.811
519.34810.541
529.19610.275
539.0299.969
548.8539.680
558.7189.392
568.5789.048
578.4308.849
588.2988.649
598.1488.433
607.9828.153
617.8667.878
627.7137.681
637.6127.499
647.4847.278
657.3847.109
667.2626.937
677.1326.779
686.9916.575
696.8556.368
706.7126.221
716.5856.023
726.4585.866
736.2955.684
746.1955.523
756.0375.347
765.9095.192
775.7665.025
785.6384.873
795.5004.728
805.3254.542
815.2004.368
825.0344.206
834.9004.024
844.7413.874
854.5853.745
864.4413.573
874.2933.399
884.1453.260
893.9803.096
903.8202.917
913.6312.751
923.4452.559
933.2182.358
942.9742.118
952.7191.949
962.5491.757
972.2701.483
981.9361.253
991.4720.990


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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