Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Product list for Gudgenby at Tennent



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Probability distribution for Gudgenby at Tennent ( Jan 2010 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.7551.372
Median1.8883.629
Mean3.5588.066
75% Quartile4.1789.479
Interquartile Range3.4248.107

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.66159.138
220.45245.865
317.20340.829
414.91736.801
513.37333.902
611.91330.012
710.97527.395
89.92925.048
98.99722.811
108.41121.204
117.82719.920
127.40318.557
137.02417.561
146.67416.597
156.34015.576
166.09014.796
175.82413.917
185.62913.059
195.39112.334
205.17011.783
214.92911.267
224.72510.711
234.51110.334
244.3459.802
254.1799.479
264.0099.206
273.8778.803
283.7428.491
293.5988.139
303.4857.764
313.3867.432
323.2777.106
333.1836.855
343.0936.615
353.0006.294
362.9136.047
372.8325.806
382.7295.588
392.6565.414
402.5545.190
412.4574.981
422.3784.829
432.2964.704
442.2424.536
452.1784.388
462.1084.227
472.0474.084
481.9873.903
491.9273.770
501.8883.629
511.8223.504
521.7513.383
531.7003.244
541.6503.115
551.5952.987
561.5392.837
571.4922.751
581.4362.666
591.3842.574
601.3342.457
611.2972.343
621.2532.262
631.2042.189
641.1642.100
651.1222.033
661.0811.965
671.0481.904
681.0141.825
690.9741.746
700.9361.691
710.9061.617
720.8621.559
730.8311.492
740.7881.434
750.7551.371
760.7191.317
770.6841.258
780.6641.206
790.6271.157
800.5921.094
810.5611.037
820.5270.984
830.4940.925
840.4620.878
850.4290.837
860.3910.784
870.3560.732
880.3230.691
890.2870.643
900.2620.591
910.2340.545
920.1950.493
930.1620.439
940.1310.378
950.0960.336
960.0570.290
970.0110.228
980.0000.178
990.0000.126


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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