Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug6.9392.6100.8682.21365.893
Aug-Sep13.81816.7471.7435.96591.289
Aug-Oct21.03319.0152.0229.580121.300

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.26447.528
2024.73331.625
3020.17624.000
4016.92618.454
5014.21614.627
6012.08211.360
709.9568.921
807.9676.736
905.6824.538

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
163.387115.302
253.14689.622
348.08080.490
444.39173.427
541.29968.463
638.83061.945
736.82957.629
835.16753.792
933.75450.148
1032.26447.528
1131.29345.430
1230.36143.189
1329.42941.542
1428.77939.935
1528.14138.219
1627.33636.892
1726.55835.383
1825.92833.889
1925.42632.610
2024.73331.625
2124.13630.692
2223.76329.676
2323.25728.978
2422.75227.980
2522.26927.366
2621.76126.845
2721.40826.063
2821.08625.452
2920.67924.754
3020.17624.000
3119.83523.322
3219.46622.646
3319.08322.122
3418.77821.611
3518.45620.923
3618.20220.382
3717.79519.851
3817.45819.362
3917.17418.967
4016.92618.454
4116.65117.965
4216.29017.608
4316.07117.310
4415.80016.906
4515.52816.546
4615.22416.149
4714.96515.793
4814.70615.335
4914.46414.993
5014.21614.627
5113.96614.300
5213.74613.976
5313.54213.601
5413.31313.248
5513.08812.894
5612.91212.470
5712.70712.224
5812.47011.976
5912.26811.708
6012.08211.360
6111.87011.017
6211.65010.770
6311.45210.541
6411.26310.263
6511.05110.049
6610.8699.832
6710.6729.632
6810.4779.372
6910.2149.109
709.9568.921
719.7318.666
729.5258.464
739.3478.229
749.1548.021
758.9297.793
768.7247.591
778.5047.372
788.3217.172
798.1496.982
807.9676.736
817.7316.506
827.5306.290
837.2956.046
847.0855.844
856.8675.671
866.6225.439
876.4075.201
886.1605.012
895.9214.786
905.6824.538
915.4124.308
925.1254.038
934.8373.754
944.5303.411
954.2063.167
963.8422.888
973.4292.483
982.8302.136
992.0431.732


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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