Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep6.7284.20814.1370.8752.6699.891
Sep-Oct14.04811.96516.4051.1546.36957.266
Sep-Nov19.68914.64019.3061.3429.69569.550

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.38544.239
2018.84130.310
3015.16522.909
4012.50617.317
5010.44513.422
608.77310.122
707.2257.706
805.7045.601
904.0133.569

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.79587.475
243.65673.074
338.70567.521
435.76563.012
533.24959.711
631.17255.185
729.34952.054
827.61149.170
926.51346.336
1025.38544.239
1124.54242.520
1223.62940.647
1322.81539.243
1422.11537.852
1521.48436.342
1620.83935.158
1720.14033.793
1819.74432.422
1919.24131.234
2018.84130.310
2118.41229.428
2217.89228.458
2317.53727.788
2417.27626.824
2516.94326.227
2616.60625.718
2716.24024.951
2815.93224.349
2915.54523.659
3015.16522.909
3114.82922.233
3214.53621.557
3314.23421.029
3413.98520.516
3513.70019.821
3613.43919.274
3713.22618.736
3812.95618.241
3912.70717.839
4012.50617.317
4112.22716.820
4211.95916.456
4311.79316.153
4411.61315.741
4511.43815.375
4611.23314.971
4711.01614.608
4810.81214.142
4910.61813.794
5010.44513.422
5110.27613.090
5210.10912.761
539.92812.381
549.75812.023
559.58011.665
569.41711.238
579.27410.990
589.12210.741
598.99010.471
608.77310.122
618.5569.780
628.4049.533
638.2559.305
648.1429.029
657.9678.817
667.7888.603
677.6278.404
687.5188.149
697.3787.890
707.2257.706
717.0647.457
726.9337.261
736.8227.033
746.6446.831
756.4436.611
766.2986.416
776.1276.207
785.9466.016
795.8135.835
805.7045.601
815.5685.384
825.4355.181
835.2724.953
845.0824.764
854.9044.603
864.7804.389
874.6024.171
884.3973.998
894.1963.793
904.0133.569
913.8033.363
923.5933.124
933.3972.874
943.1542.576
952.9082.366
962.6482.129
972.3771.791
982.0231.508
991.4651.186


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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