Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Mar3.6311.2511.1390.0007.25815.767
Mar-Apr7.9921.9815.5680.0698.22695.630
Mar-May11.1442.8876.9700.2209.105107.019

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.68723.110
206.07512.762
304.1518.603
403.0415.936
502.2624.282
601.6183.002
701.1332.146
800.7171.450
900.2980.836

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.76392.239
223.48761.526
319.06951.794
416.54544.857
514.65640.090
613.37934.443
712.25830.872
811.37927.801
910.43325.028
109.68723.110
119.16021.620
128.59820.079
138.17618.964
147.76917.889
157.37316.778
167.04315.948
176.77615.002
186.49614.089
196.30213.333
206.07512.762
215.83812.228
225.62811.632
235.43711.262
245.22210.707
255.02710.378
264.83510.098
274.6639.672
284.4839.345
294.3228.994
304.1518.603
314.0368.264
323.8877.919
333.7837.660
343.6747.423
353.5707.083
363.4706.831
373.3866.579
383.2796.355
393.1676.170
403.0415.936
412.9655.715
422.8765.558
432.7415.423
442.6625.248
452.5875.093
462.5204.918
472.4504.771
482.3904.577
492.3334.432
502.2624.282
512.1884.148
522.1184.020
532.0423.865
541.9813.729
551.9163.583
561.8513.425
571.7873.330
581.7243.235
591.6793.136
601.6183.002
611.5632.879
621.5052.790
631.4592.707
641.4112.610
651.3612.534
661.3122.458
671.2722.388
681.2262.299
691.1762.209
701.1332.146
711.0902.061
721.0501.994
730.9981.917
740.9541.850
750.9101.777
760.8801.713
770.8391.645
780.7911.583
790.7561.525
800.7171.450
810.6751.382
820.6381.318
830.5931.247
840.5461.190
850.5091.141
860.4701.076
870.4271.011
880.3770.960
890.3330.901
900.2980.836
910.2560.778
920.2220.711
930.1670.642
940.1220.562
950.0830.507
960.0210.446
970.0000.361
980.0000.293
990.0000.219


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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