Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent


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Historical and exceedance probability for Gudgenby at Tennent ( Jan 2013 )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan3.3033.3420.6300.0981.9763.342
Jan-Feb6.15513.7341.8450.0994.15813.734
Jan-Mar9.83776.9463.0960.09911.33676.946

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.50521.204
209.66911.783
306.8677.764
405.0225.190
503.7693.629
602.7992.457
702.0031.691
801.3401.094
900.6890.591

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.44859.138
231.81345.865
327.02540.829
424.57036.801
522.35533.902
620.40530.012
718.70027.395
817.54525.048
916.42222.811
1015.50521.204
1114.34419.920
1213.48118.557
1312.94917.561
1412.52916.597
1511.99215.576
1611.42514.796
1710.90113.917
1810.43713.059
199.99712.334
209.66911.783
219.28511.267
228.93910.711
238.70910.334
248.3969.802
258.1469.479
267.7809.206
277.5468.803
287.2998.491
297.0638.139
306.8677.764
316.6247.432
326.4557.106
336.2386.855
346.0706.615
355.8846.294
365.6876.047
375.5075.806
385.3625.588
395.1935.414
405.0225.190
414.8824.981
424.7724.829
434.6304.704
444.5084.536
454.3664.388
464.2344.227
474.1084.084
484.0043.903
493.8983.770
503.7693.629
513.6623.504
523.5523.383
533.4663.244
543.3433.115
553.2332.987
563.1362.837
573.0372.751
582.9462.666
592.8762.574
602.7992.457
612.7192.343
622.6282.262
632.5292.189
642.4342.100
652.3622.033
662.2841.965
672.2141.904
682.1561.825
692.0811.746
702.0031.691
711.9261.617
721.8541.559
731.7821.492
741.7211.434
751.6561.371
761.6051.317
771.5261.258
781.4701.206
791.4161.157
801.3401.094
811.2781.037
821.2130.984
831.1340.925
841.0650.878
851.0010.837
860.9310.784
870.8720.732
880.7970.691
890.7370.643
900.6890.591
910.6230.545
920.5540.493
930.4910.439
940.4310.378
950.3730.336
960.3140.290
970.2310.228
980.1320.178
990.0460.126


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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