Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.11640.919
2012.17022.793
309.10615.423
406.99510.675
505.4207.718
604.1985.425
703.1973.887
802.2722.633
901.3341.524

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
145.568151.780
235.742104.795
330.26689.174
427.40877.805
524.95769.876
622.72160.366
721.04554.288
819.75949.025
918.94544.242
1018.11640.919
1117.28938.328
1216.61235.643
1315.76033.695
1415.20531.813
1514.53929.865
1614.03928.406
1713.55226.742
1813.08825.135
1912.59023.799
2012.17022.793
2111.73521.848
2211.36520.795
2310.97920.140
2410.76019.156
2510.46118.573
2610.22518.078
279.96617.321
289.68316.742
299.34816.118
309.10615.423
318.86114.821
328.62814.206
338.35313.747
348.14913.324
357.92112.718
367.67612.270
377.48311.821
387.28211.421
397.13411.092
406.99510.675
416.81510.280
426.6689.999
436.4139.759
446.2729.445
456.1179.168
465.9928.857
475.8328.593
485.6968.247
495.5327.987
505.4207.718
515.2837.479
525.1587.249
535.0436.971
544.8926.729
554.7716.467
564.6446.184
574.5226.014
584.3965.843
594.2895.665
604.1985.425
614.0955.204
623.9675.045
633.8684.895
643.7714.721
653.6884.585
663.5904.448
673.4754.323
683.3904.162
693.2954.001
703.1973.887
713.1073.734
722.9953.614
732.9103.475
742.8433.354
752.7453.223
762.6283.107
772.5432.984
782.4442.873
792.3592.768
802.2722.633
812.1702.510
822.0772.395
831.9682.268
841.8572.164
851.7772.075
861.6771.958
871.5831.841
881.5151.749
891.4191.641
901.3341.524
911.2201.418
921.1111.297
931.0141.173
940.9131.027
950.8060.927
960.7060.816
970.5760.662
980.4410.538
990.1780.402


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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