Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1033.79944.990
2023.75626.710
3017.71117.399
4013.57011.128
5010.6747.373
608.6134.675
706.6663.015
804.8771.809
903.0310.881

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
175.61497.889
262.62580.803
354.54374.115
448.84168.627
544.35064.570
640.68458.944
738.96355.005
837.07551.340
935.18947.703
1033.79944.990
1132.46942.753
1231.42840.302
1330.15138.458
1429.27136.627
1528.42034.636
1627.38633.074
1726.28331.274
1825.24129.472
1924.45927.915
2023.75626.710
2122.99825.564
2222.26224.313
2321.50723.455
2420.89722.228
2520.21521.475
2619.67320.837
2719.19619.883
2818.71519.143
2918.18918.301
3017.71117.399
3117.14016.596
3216.65715.803
3316.27415.194
3415.80814.607
3515.37313.825
3614.94913.219
3714.53212.632
3814.13012.099
3913.86011.673
4013.57011.128
4113.20710.618
4212.97010.250
4312.6539.946
4412.3999.540
4512.0819.184
4611.8658.797
4711.5478.455
4811.2498.023
4910.9897.706
5010.6747.373
5110.4537.080
5210.2476.794
539.9836.471
549.7486.171
559.5495.877
569.3455.534
579.1735.338
588.9835.144
598.8274.938
608.6134.675
618.4044.423
628.2154.244
638.0084.083
647.8383.889
657.6503.743
667.4483.598
677.2763.466
687.0293.298
696.8073.132
706.6663.015
716.5032.861
726.3272.741
736.1592.604
745.9732.485
755.7662.358
765.5772.248
775.4182.132
785.2202.028
795.0661.931
804.8771.809
814.6591.698
824.5221.597
834.3191.486
844.1821.397
854.0001.322
863.8171.226
873.6351.130
883.3941.056
893.2470.971
903.0310.881
912.8050.802
922.6020.713
932.3400.624
942.1780.524
951.9930.458
961.7520.387
971.5020.294
981.2280.224
990.8830.153


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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