Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.79136.410
2019.57823.034
3014.81615.474
4011.4639.958
508.9846.522
607.0874.040
705.3062.532
803.8371.461
902.3170.665

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
154.06772.314
246.67560.830
341.32456.324
438.17052.616
535.74649.868
633.38246.042
731.91743.348
830.51440.826
928.95138.306
1027.79136.410
1126.56734.835
1225.41533.096
1324.37831.776
1423.62730.454
1522.80029.002
1621.98727.852
1721.36426.512
1820.77025.153
1920.17823.965
2019.57823.034
2118.97222.141
2218.39721.154
2317.97320.470
2417.56319.483
2517.04118.872
2616.57418.349
2716.13717.562
2815.65616.946
2915.23216.239
3014.81615.474
3114.38914.787
3213.96014.103
3313.72413.573
3413.36413.060
3512.97212.371
3612.62511.834
3712.32111.310
3811.99010.834
3911.73910.450
4011.4639.958
4111.2069.495
4210.9209.160
4310.6328.884
4410.4008.513
4510.1678.187
469.9337.832
479.6507.518
489.4607.120
499.2106.829
508.9846.522
518.8146.252
528.6255.989
538.3685.690
548.1505.415
557.9895.144
567.7914.828
577.6284.647
587.4374.470
597.2794.280
607.0874.040
616.8873.809
626.7083.646
636.5533.499
646.3733.323
656.2103.190
666.0553.058
675.8882.939
685.7162.787
695.4942.637
705.3062.532
715.1252.393
724.9462.286
734.7772.164
744.6512.058
754.5111.945
764.3761.848
774.2011.745
784.1091.653
793.9581.568
803.8371.461
813.6971.365
823.5391.276
833.4221.181
843.2531.104
853.0851.039
862.9520.956
872.8060.875
882.6070.812
892.4670.740
902.3170.665
912.1870.598
922.0170.524
931.8080.451
941.6600.370
951.4720.316
961.2920.259
971.0940.185
980.8370.130
990.5780.076


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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