Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.11835.590
2014.75118.166
309.65711.474
406.6837.409
504.6805.032
603.3883.302
702.3352.203
801.4731.371
900.7310.694

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
174.398127.005
258.20792.412
350.12079.772
442.92369.963
537.96663.103
634.57254.211
731.53948.449
829.04543.443
927.39238.820
1025.11835.590
1123.24633.064
1221.82930.436
1320.93528.550
1419.76926.752
1518.83524.878
1617.84823.464
1716.88521.894
1816.13920.380
1915.48119.117
2014.75118.166
2114.16317.283
2213.51716.341
2312.94015.706
2412.45414.816
2511.99014.278
2611.46113.828
2710.98313.163
2810.62312.654
2910.12012.081
309.65711.474
319.24510.940
328.92610.417
338.66810.018
348.4019.637
358.1219.131
367.8178.741
377.5278.365
387.2668.026
396.9787.755
406.6837.409
416.4217.085
426.2016.852
436.0076.660
445.8196.403
455.5306.179
465.3315.934
475.1705.718
484.9865.444
494.8315.243
504.6805.032
514.5234.846
524.3694.664
534.2094.458
544.0744.267
553.9244.078
563.8323.858
573.7273.731
583.5883.606
593.4913.472
603.3883.302
613.2673.137
623.1473.020
633.0332.914
642.9372.786
652.8152.690
662.7122.593
672.6152.505
682.5122.393
692.4192.281
702.3352.203
712.2512.098
722.1462.017
732.0601.923
741.9591.842
751.8831.755
761.7831.679
771.7151.598
781.6421.525
791.5561.457
801.4731.371
811.3991.292
821.3211.220
831.2541.141
841.1781.076
851.0961.022
861.0100.951
870.9350.880
880.8660.826
890.7890.762
900.7310.694
910.6630.634
920.5770.565
930.5150.496
940.4460.417
950.3730.364
960.3000.306
970.2210.228
980.1510.168
990.0580.105


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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