Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1034.44342.000
2022.48321.518
3015.75213.603
4011.7838.797
508.7555.980
606.4553.922
704.8062.625
803.2081.635
901.6740.829

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
187.700147.597
267.344108.017
357.84293.361
452.72582.086
548.88473.902
645.26063.739
741.48357.062
838.57151.181
936.39645.777
1034.44342.000
1132.55739.048
1231.11035.986
1330.03733.767
1428.65031.629
1527.14929.422
1626.04227.776
1725.13325.906
1824.13224.112
1923.14422.629
2022.48321.518
2121.74220.481
2220.95219.331
2320.11918.620
2419.41917.557
2518.59116.932
2618.05516.402
2717.36215.598
2816.68014.985
2916.24114.329
3015.75213.603
3115.30712.978
3214.94012.344
3314.55411.873
3414.17511.442
3513.79110.829
3613.29810.378
3712.8959.929
3812.4699.532
3912.1559.207
4011.7838.797
4111.4998.412
4211.1448.140
4310.8537.908
4410.4627.606
4510.1877.341
469.9457.045
479.6546.796
489.2966.471
499.0516.228
508.7555.980
518.5045.759
528.2335.548
538.0365.295
547.7645.076
557.5164.840
567.3014.588
577.1424.438
586.8884.287
596.6774.131
606.4553.922
616.2813.731
626.1423.594
635.9973.466
645.7953.318
655.6513.203
665.4773.089
675.3202.984
685.1372.851
694.9962.718
704.8062.625
714.6332.500
724.4892.403
734.3302.292
744.1482.196
753.9932.092
763.8262.001
773.6531.905
783.5171.818
793.3631.738
803.2081.635
813.0531.541
822.8721.455
832.6951.361
842.5561.284
852.4041.219
862.2501.135
872.1201.051
881.9530.985
891.8050.910
901.6740.829
911.5370.756
921.3930.675
931.2220.592
941.0580.498
950.8820.434
960.7410.365
970.5640.273
980.3660.201
990.1240.126


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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