Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1029.78143.211
2022.07424.379
3017.62616.501
4014.25611.380
5011.6978.198
609.7495.740
707.8874.085
806.0822.751
904.1121.579

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
159.807134.582
250.54299.954
345.49587.429
441.24477.730
538.39570.940
635.49362.100
733.55056.328
832.04851.269
930.86246.547
1029.78143.211
1128.52340.578
1227.59537.810
1326.62935.805
1425.91933.876
1525.20031.847
1624.42930.301
1723.70828.568
1823.14426.881
1922.60225.459
2022.07424.379
2121.44423.369
2220.90222.282
2320.39521.544
2419.84020.502
2519.52019.869
2619.06319.335
2718.75418.543
2818.33617.931
2917.94717.239
3017.62616.501
3117.20415.846
3216.83115.201
3316.43014.705
3416.05514.227
3515.72313.591
3615.38713.097
3715.12112.617
3814.83112.180
3914.53811.830
4014.25611.380
4114.01610.957
4213.76110.651
4313.49810.397
4413.25110.056
4512.9909.755
4612.7909.427
4712.4969.135
4812.2268.763
4911.9418.488
5011.6978.198
5111.4917.940
5211.2937.687
5311.0557.399
5410.8637.129
5510.6766.862
5610.4826.547
5710.2936.365
5810.0766.184
599.9325.990
609.7495.740
619.5545.498
629.3635.325
639.1545.167
648.9704.976
658.8374.830
668.6584.684
678.4504.550
688.2514.379
698.0644.206
707.8874.085
717.6683.922
727.4933.794
737.3233.646
747.1303.517
756.9333.377
766.7483.255
776.5563.124
786.3833.005
796.2242.894
806.0822.751
815.9052.620
825.7452.499
835.5742.364
845.3922.254
855.2232.160
865.0272.037
874.7891.913
884.5681.816
894.3921.702
904.1121.579
913.8891.468
923.6771.341
933.4101.210
943.1491.058
952.9160.953
962.5850.837
972.2120.677
981.8890.548
991.3930.408


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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