Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1063.93844.990
2047.02526.710
3035.71017.399
4028.19311.128
5022.5637.373
6018.2544.675
7014.2783.015
8010.6261.809
906.7160.881

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1128.10997.889
2106.07580.803
393.56774.115
486.02468.627
580.91964.570
676.33158.944
772.48455.005
869.55851.340
966.24047.703
1063.93844.990
1161.32342.753
1259.49040.302
1357.74238.458
1455.86136.627
1554.36534.636
1652.75633.074
1751.28631.274
1849.77429.472
1948.26727.915
2047.02526.710
2145.76225.564
2244.42524.313
2343.49823.455
2441.89022.228
2540.72521.475
2639.63820.837
2738.52419.883
2837.63219.143
2936.69418.301
3035.71017.399
3134.68616.596
3233.87915.803
3332.92315.194
3432.25514.607
3531.50413.825
3630.85013.219
3730.07812.632
3829.39312.099
3928.76911.673
4028.19311.128
4127.52110.618
4226.87310.250
4326.2609.946
4425.7219.540
4525.1929.184
4624.6818.797
4724.0298.455
4823.5508.023
4923.0537.706
5022.5637.373
5122.0717.080
5221.5486.794
5320.9546.471
5420.5576.171
5520.1245.877
5619.8085.534
5719.4255.338
5819.0165.144
5918.6304.938
6018.2544.675
6117.9484.423
6217.4644.244
6317.0354.083
6416.5523.889
6516.2553.743
6615.9073.598
6715.5693.466
6815.1643.298
6914.6743.132
7014.2783.015
7113.8712.861
7213.5542.741
7313.1292.604
7412.7092.485
7512.3722.358
7612.1112.248
7711.7642.132
7811.4142.028
7910.9661.931
8010.6261.809
8110.2761.698
829.8901.597
839.5861.486
849.1721.397
858.7001.322
868.3381.226
877.9531.130
887.5371.056
897.1280.971
906.7160.881
916.2470.802
925.8180.713
935.4260.624
945.0840.524
954.6530.458
964.0950.387
973.6050.294
982.9940.224
992.3240.153


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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