Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.40934.549
206.09117.770
304.18011.182
402.9217.181
502.0394.854
601.5013.172
701.0322.113
800.6281.318
900.2580.680

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
133.520111.542
225.10983.859
320.28673.453
417.34565.206
515.56459.328
614.23451.546
712.87446.393
812.00141.840
911.02037.570
1010.40934.549
119.81632.165
129.15329.665
138.56327.860
148.08826.130
157.73724.318
167.35822.946
177.00521.417
186.64519.939
196.31618.702
206.09117.770
215.81216.903
225.57615.976
235.41015.352
245.21614.475
255.01313.946
264.84113.502
274.68712.847
284.47612.345
294.31911.780
304.18011.182
314.02910.656
323.85910.141
333.7319.748
343.6269.372
353.4928.874
363.3688.491
373.2528.121
383.1287.787
393.0147.520
402.9217.181
412.8206.863
422.7366.635
432.6376.447
442.5316.195
452.4345.974
462.3515.735
472.2725.524
482.1835.256
492.1135.060
502.0394.854
511.9704.673
521.9144.496
531.8514.295
541.8014.108
551.7423.925
561.6963.711
571.6413.588
581.6053.467
591.5493.337
601.5013.172
611.4523.013
621.4052.900
631.3592.797
641.3032.674
651.2592.581
661.2032.488
671.1502.404
681.1082.296
691.0682.188
701.0322.113
710.9822.013
720.9481.935
730.9011.845
740.8581.768
750.8161.684
760.7781.611
770.7361.534
780.7031.465
790.6631.400
800.6281.318
810.5901.244
820.5491.175
830.5131.100
840.4731.039
850.4350.988
860.4010.921
870.3610.854
880.3320.803
890.2940.743
900.2580.680
910.2180.623
920.1840.559
930.1470.495
940.1030.421
950.0620.372
960.0250.319
970.0000.247
980.0000.192
990.0000.135


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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