Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry



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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Jan 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.21324.887
2010.67915.103
307.62410.343
405.6317.085
504.0915.032
603.0623.455
702.1842.407
801.4081.580
900.6790.874

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.22956.328
232.07045.912
327.48541.873
425.08338.585
522.33736.174
620.65232.864
719.37730.575
817.93428.470
917.06526.408
1016.21324.887
1115.51023.647
1214.97122.302
1314.28321.300
1413.79220.313
1513.18019.249
1612.57218.421
1712.00617.474
1811.47916.533
1911.07215.725
2010.67915.103
2110.34714.513
229.98113.872
239.56013.433
249.21912.806
258.96412.422
268.67612.097
278.35611.611
288.06211.234
297.81610.804
307.62410.343
317.4619.932
327.2249.525
337.0259.211
346.8718.908
356.6258.502
366.4208.187
376.2177.879
386.0317.600
395.8527.375
405.6317.085
415.4596.813
425.2496.615
435.1046.452
444.9346.231
454.7816.038
464.6485.825
474.4975.637
484.3655.397
494.2365.220
504.0915.032
513.9854.866
523.8924.704
533.7694.518
543.6854.344
553.5564.173
563.4363.970
573.3503.854
583.2503.738
593.1523.614
603.0623.455
612.9783.300
622.8703.190
632.7703.090
642.6612.969
652.5882.877
662.5032.784
672.4232.700
682.3452.592
692.2692.483
702.1842.407
712.1242.305
722.0552.225
731.9672.133
741.8862.053
751.8011.966
761.7121.890
771.6211.809
781.5411.736
791.4751.668
801.4081.580
811.3461.500
821.2801.426
831.2191.344
841.1291.277
851.0431.221
860.9771.147
870.9141.072
880.8311.014
890.7440.947
900.6790.874
910.6150.808
920.5590.734
930.4970.658
940.4350.570
950.3340.510
960.2480.444
970.1520.354
980.0410.282
990.0000.206


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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