Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry



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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1038.89440.003
2026.99121.519
3020.25914.190
4015.6539.579
5012.1256.774
609.6444.647
707.4613.254
805.5142.146
903.3771.196

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
193.774149.053
275.264104.576
365.99989.175
458.40677.771
554.07369.731
649.21160.012
746.22253.768
843.37948.350
941.07843.423
1038.89440.003
1137.48237.341
1235.99934.584
1334.41832.589
1433.15630.665
1531.98828.679
1630.91927.194
1729.83225.505
1828.87923.879
1927.88022.532
2026.99121.519
2126.16320.571
2225.37519.516
2324.41418.861
2423.63617.881
2522.92117.302
2622.39716.810
2721.80716.061
2821.22315.488
2920.71114.874
3020.25914.190
3119.68113.600
3219.11212.998
3318.66112.550
3418.08012.138
3517.66511.550
3617.28911.116
3716.91310.682
3816.47510.296
3916.0729.979
4015.6539.579
4115.2599.201
4214.8308.933
4314.4708.704
4414.1318.405
4513.7358.142
4613.4137.847
4713.0027.598
4812.7097.271
4912.4307.026
5012.1256.774
5111.8806.550
5211.5656.334
5311.3506.076
5411.0715.850
5510.8245.607
5610.5745.345
5710.2975.188
5810.0855.031
599.8454.867
609.6444.647
619.4184.445
629.1384.300
638.9034.164
648.6324.005
658.4463.882
668.2393.758
678.0123.645
687.7873.501
697.6463.356
707.4613.254
717.2793.117
727.0703.010
736.8902.887
746.6782.780
756.4702.663
766.2482.562
776.0102.453
785.8502.355
795.6732.264
805.5142.146
815.3332.039
825.1091.939
834.8741.829
844.6691.740
854.4831.664
864.2191.564
874.0141.464
883.7781.386
893.5871.294
903.3771.196
913.1381.108
922.9761.007
932.7740.904
942.5070.784
952.1920.703
961.8820.613
971.6570.491
981.3290.393
990.9900.288


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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