Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.65946.831
2014.25125.359
3010.30916.755
407.53811.323
505.7328.013
604.3235.501
703.2533.853
802.2452.543
901.2321.419

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
166.420165.013
249.923118.361
341.327101.786
436.49289.331
532.34580.449
630.08069.592
728.07862.548
826.03856.391
924.60050.759
1022.65946.831
1121.41743.762
1219.99240.576
1319.00738.263
1418.22536.030
1517.41233.719
1616.56631.990
1715.99130.020
1815.35428.120
1914.80726.545
2014.25125.359
2113.79024.248
2213.16223.012
2312.78722.244
2412.38221.094
2512.05120.414
2611.57519.836
2711.21718.956
2810.92518.282
2910.59617.559
3010.30916.755
319.99316.061
329.64215.353
339.41414.825
349.10514.339
358.83813.647
368.59513.135
378.31612.623
388.11212.170
397.83011.796
407.53811.323
417.33010.877
427.13410.561
436.91010.291
446.7419.939
456.5909.628
466.4049.280
476.2268.986
486.0838.600
495.8868.311
505.7328.013
515.5847.749
525.4697.494
535.3327.189
545.2106.923
555.0776.635
564.9016.326
574.7706.141
584.6135.954
594.4515.761
604.3235.501
614.1985.262
624.0925.090
633.9774.929
643.8494.742
653.7484.596
663.6554.450
673.5504.316
683.4574.145
693.3493.974
703.2533.853
713.1603.692
723.0503.565
732.9483.420
742.8123.293
752.7243.155
762.6453.035
772.5132.907
782.4072.791
792.3222.682
802.2452.543
812.1382.416
822.0492.298
831.9472.168
841.8402.062
851.7411.972
861.6241.854
871.5381.736
881.4421.643
891.3541.535
901.2321.419
911.1441.314
921.0441.194
930.9571.072
940.8340.931
950.7030.834
960.5850.728
970.4580.582
980.2880.466
990.1150.342


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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