Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.62924.887
205.97215.103
304.17010.343
402.9217.085
502.1155.032
601.4633.455
700.9902.407
800.5941.580
900.2040.874

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.59756.328
221.59045.912
318.24341.873
415.70038.585
513.82036.174
612.63232.864
711.71430.575
810.91528.470
910.18926.408
109.62924.887
119.11923.647
128.63622.302
138.29021.300
147.79920.313
157.45519.249
167.06418.421
176.75617.474
186.48116.533
196.21215.725
205.97215.103
215.71614.513
225.51613.872
235.29213.433
245.13512.806
254.97612.422
264.80812.097
274.62411.611
284.46411.234
294.30910.804
304.17010.343
314.0449.932
323.9229.525
333.7889.211
343.6408.908
353.5148.502
363.4118.187
373.2957.879
383.1817.600
393.0527.375
402.9217.085
412.8346.813
422.7406.615
432.6456.452
442.5666.231
452.4896.038
462.4035.825
472.3395.637
482.2645.397
492.1915.220
502.1155.032
512.0394.866
521.9744.704
531.9104.518
541.8384.344
551.7854.173
561.7163.970
571.6463.854
581.5853.738
591.5243.614
601.4633.455
611.4173.300
621.3723.190
631.3233.090
641.2632.969
651.2162.877
661.1662.784
671.1222.700
681.0832.592
691.0462.483
700.9902.407
710.9482.305
720.9032.225
730.8642.133
740.8262.053
750.7901.966
760.7561.890
770.7221.809
780.6751.736
790.6331.668
800.5941.580
810.5551.500
820.5191.426
830.4781.344
840.4411.277
850.4001.221
860.3641.147
870.3171.072
880.2761.014
890.2360.947
900.2040.874
910.1740.808
920.1380.734
930.0940.658
940.0470.570
950.0070.510
960.0000.444
970.0000.354
980.0000.282
990.0000.206


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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