Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.5032.212
Median4.8765.313
Mean7.32910.413
75% Quartile9.30912.480
Interquartile Range6.80610.268

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
139.53973.010
230.70455.828
326.55749.432
423.79844.468
521.68540.824
620.25836.227
718.92433.148
817.75030.384
916.97327.792
1016.19925.944
1115.36024.476
1214.63422.928
1314.15921.789
1413.57720.676
1513.07019.510
1612.58718.628
1712.09617.612
1811.66616.622
1911.33115.792
2010.94015.162
2110.63114.568
2210.23313.902
239.96813.486
249.64012.858
259.31012.484
269.01712.166
278.73811.678
288.54211.303
298.29210.898
308.09610.445
317.86210.051
327.6779.648
337.4759.346
347.2659.067
357.0728.667
366.8638.370
376.6728.071
386.4897.805
396.3207.586
406.1797.307
416.0167.042
425.8476.854
435.7096.693
445.5856.482
455.4366.295
465.3496.085
475.2175.907
485.0725.672
494.9805.496
504.8765.313
514.7485.151
524.5924.994
534.5134.805
544.4094.639
554.3074.459
564.2024.266
574.0994.149
584.0034.031
593.9023.909
603.8233.744
613.7143.591
623.6243.481
633.5383.378
643.4283.257
653.3403.162
663.2453.068
673.1612.980
683.0902.869
693.0062.756
702.9132.677
712.8262.570
722.7322.486
732.6722.389
742.5822.304
752.5032.212
762.3942.131
772.3042.044
782.2361.966
792.1431.892
802.0641.797
812.0001.709
821.9251.628
831.8281.538
841.7541.464
851.6721.400
861.5891.317
871.5031.234
881.4291.168
891.3491.090
901.2641.006
911.1840.930
921.0920.843
931.0090.752
940.9060.647
950.7840.574
960.6850.492
970.5680.379
980.4410.287
990.2650.186


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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