Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.7831.684
Median4.1024.854
Mean7.84812.937
75% Quartile9.71413.946
Interquartile Range7.93112.262

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.390111.542
240.22583.859
333.98773.453
429.97365.206
527.14859.328
625.27251.546
723.40346.393
821.65041.840
920.09037.570
1019.13934.549
1117.90632.165
1216.94629.665
1315.98427.860
1415.14026.130
1514.48824.318
1613.89322.946
1713.33521.417
1812.74319.939
1912.14318.702
2011.65117.770
2111.08216.903
2210.71115.976
2310.36115.352
249.96914.475
259.71813.946
269.37913.502
279.05212.847
288.76212.345
298.46411.780
308.10611.182
317.79710.656
327.56510.141
337.2869.748
347.0629.372
356.8198.874
366.6188.491
376.4148.121
386.1827.787
395.9717.520
405.7607.181
415.5726.863
425.3776.635
435.2336.447
445.0236.195
454.8555.974
464.6945.735
474.5165.524
484.3695.256
494.2275.060
504.1024.854
513.9894.673
523.8794.496
533.7684.295
543.6604.108
553.5473.925
563.4683.711
573.3663.588
583.2833.467
593.1923.337
603.1113.172
613.0033.013
622.9122.900
632.8192.797
642.7422.674
652.6392.581
662.5482.488
672.4542.404
682.3842.296
692.3062.188
702.2012.113
712.0952.013
722.0171.935
731.9581.845
741.8711.768
751.7831.684
761.7031.611
771.6121.534
781.5601.465
791.5021.400
801.4371.318
811.3661.244
821.2901.175
831.2001.100
841.1331.039
851.0570.988
860.9810.921
870.9200.854
880.8490.803
890.7970.743
900.7120.680
910.6330.623
920.5680.559
930.5040.495
940.4320.421
950.3500.372
960.2660.319
970.1940.247
980.1010.192
990.0000.135


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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