Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.3472.663
Median6.4436.774
Mean10.20316.240
75% Quartile12.64317.295
Interquartile Range9.29614.632

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
160.276149.053
245.347104.576
339.50989.175
434.17377.771
530.78169.731
628.29560.012
726.11053.768
824.54748.350
923.28243.423
1021.81340.003
1120.81537.341
1220.02534.584
1319.08432.589
1418.48930.665
1517.71028.679
1617.16027.194
1716.54825.505
1815.91223.879
1915.31222.532
2014.82821.519
2114.36720.571
2213.80419.516
2313.31418.861
2412.99417.881
2512.64617.302
2612.31316.810
2711.95316.061
2811.63715.488
2911.29414.874
3010.95114.190
3110.68813.600
3210.40512.998
3310.10412.550
349.89812.138
359.67011.550
369.34811.116
379.08910.682
388.87010.296
398.6259.979
408.4439.579
418.2009.201
427.9328.933
437.7198.704
447.5758.405
457.4008.142
467.2137.847
477.0027.598
486.7787.271
496.5987.026
506.4436.774
516.3176.550
526.1726.334
536.0476.076
545.9215.850
555.8025.607
565.6615.345
575.4945.188
585.3565.031
595.2114.867
605.1024.647
614.9744.445
624.8374.300
634.6994.164
644.5644.005
654.4473.882
664.3433.758
674.2313.645
684.1253.501
694.0013.356
703.9073.254
713.8133.117
723.6673.010
733.5652.887
743.4302.780
753.3472.663
763.2312.562
773.1262.453
783.0362.355
792.9062.264
802.7992.146
812.7032.039
822.6121.939
832.4991.829
842.3681.740
852.2481.664
862.1271.564
872.0141.464
881.8941.386
891.7711.294
901.6681.196
911.5531.108
921.4421.007
931.2960.904
941.1460.784
951.0010.703
960.8550.613
970.7160.491
980.5340.393
990.2940.288


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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