Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.6273.155
Median5.5308.013
Mean9.61618.798
75% Quartile11.62620.406
Interquartile Range8.99917.250

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
164.665165.013
248.624118.361
340.026101.786
435.27789.331
531.37980.449
629.15269.592
727.19662.548
825.23556.391
923.82550.759
1021.90746.831
1120.75143.762
1219.34740.576
1318.40238.263
1417.64636.030
1516.89733.719
1616.07631.990
1715.46030.020
1814.86828.120
1914.29826.545
2013.78325.359
2113.32524.248
2212.73523.012
2312.35822.244
2411.96721.094
2511.64120.414
2611.19619.836
2710.85018.956
2810.55218.282
2910.26517.559
309.96516.755
319.67916.061
329.34515.353
339.10414.825
348.80014.339
358.54713.647
368.32313.135
378.06912.623
387.82312.170
397.55811.796
407.28911.323
417.08510.877
426.88510.561
436.67810.291
446.5199.939
456.3599.628
466.1739.280
476.0138.986
485.8548.600
495.6828.311
505.5308.013
515.3817.749
525.2757.494
535.1467.189
545.0406.923
554.8926.635
564.7246.326
574.6026.141
584.4515.954
594.3085.761
604.1695.501
614.0515.262
623.9355.090
633.8404.929
643.7174.742
653.6134.596
663.5204.450
673.4134.316
683.3344.145
693.2283.974
703.1363.853
713.0373.692
722.9353.565
732.8413.420
742.7103.293
752.6233.155
762.5443.035
772.4152.907
782.3222.791
792.2372.682
802.1662.543
812.0572.416
821.9702.298
831.8642.168
841.7632.062
851.6731.972
861.5641.854
871.4751.736
881.3841.643
891.3011.535
901.1781.419
911.0961.314
920.9951.194
930.9131.072
940.7890.931
950.6680.834
960.5530.728
970.4300.582
980.2700.466
990.0980.342


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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