Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.6291.945
Median7.2156.522
Mean10.34813.271
75% Quartile13.80418.871
Interquartile Range10.17616.926

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
147.81072.314
239.99060.830
335.85656.324
432.15652.616
529.82549.868
628.03146.042
726.81343.348
825.62640.826
924.47138.306
1023.10036.410
1121.90434.835
1221.07533.096
1320.35231.776
1419.55830.454
1518.73029.002
1617.93927.852
1717.42026.512
1816.87525.153
1916.30323.965
2015.84523.034
2115.39322.141
2214.99921.154
2314.51820.470
2414.14419.483
2513.80718.872
2613.47518.349
2713.06317.562
2812.67816.946
2912.38716.239
3011.97915.474
3111.69914.787
3211.37014.103
3311.01413.573
3410.74413.060
3510.44712.371
3610.13711.834
379.87911.310
389.56710.834
399.36910.450
409.1519.958
418.9549.495
428.7639.160
438.5708.884
448.3218.513
458.1318.187
467.9247.832
477.7697.518
487.5877.120
497.4086.829
507.2156.522
517.0186.252
526.8455.989
536.6825.690
546.5105.415
556.3775.144
566.2004.828
576.0384.647
585.8884.470
595.7424.280
605.5884.040
615.4543.809
625.3123.646
635.1513.499
645.0213.323
654.8913.190
664.7773.058
674.6482.939
684.5192.787
694.3802.637
704.2612.532
714.1452.393
724.0192.286
733.8882.164
743.7452.058
753.6281.945
763.4901.848
773.3821.745
783.2691.653
793.1351.568
803.0021.461
812.8931.365
822.7681.276
832.6691.181
842.5521.104
852.4231.039
862.3190.956
872.1730.875
882.0610.812
891.9450.740
901.8080.665
911.7250.598
921.5770.524
931.4320.451
941.3160.370
951.1780.316
961.0170.259
970.8340.185
980.6200.130
990.4160.076


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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