Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Probability distribution for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.4652.212
Median6.6925.313
Mean9.90710.413
75% Quartile12.68712.480
Interquartile Range9.22110.268

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
151.26673.010
239.93855.828
334.71249.432
431.38544.468
528.97440.824
626.94536.227
725.45333.148
823.70530.384
922.82227.792
1021.87825.944
1120.86524.476
1219.91922.928
1319.04921.789
1418.30120.676
1517.75119.510
1617.03518.628
1716.43317.612
1815.84416.622
1915.35815.792
2014.81415.162
2114.36614.568
2213.88013.902
2313.49013.486
2413.05712.858
2512.68912.484
2612.36212.166
2711.94911.678
2811.63411.303
2911.37710.898
3011.00410.445
3110.76210.051
3210.4749.648
3310.2179.346
349.8959.067
359.6288.667
369.3638.370
379.1668.071
388.9027.805
398.6827.586
408.4957.307
418.2917.042
428.1156.854
437.8846.693
447.6726.482
457.5066.295
467.3466.085
477.1745.907
487.0105.672
496.8805.496
506.6925.313
516.5355.151
526.3724.994
536.2134.805
546.0774.639
555.9144.459
565.8064.266
575.6434.149
585.5164.031
595.3843.909
605.2463.744
615.1073.591
624.9993.481
634.8813.378
644.7553.257
654.6353.162
664.5313.068
674.4102.980
684.2862.869
694.1762.756
704.0502.677
713.9402.570
723.8262.486
733.7052.389
743.5712.304
753.4632.212
763.3752.131
773.2522.044
783.1421.966
793.0241.892
802.9281.797
812.8401.709
822.7081.628
832.6141.538
842.4811.464
852.3521.400
862.2471.317
872.1551.234
882.0271.168
891.9281.090
901.8311.006
911.7410.930
921.6030.843
931.4580.752
941.3270.647
951.1530.574
961.0300.492
970.8840.379
980.7150.287
990.4780.186


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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