Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep5.28014.9390.4132.52635.518
Sep-Oct10.95717.2860.5574.56071.660
Sep-Nov15.42719.7320.5746.28089.779

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1045.97240.652
2033.35123.584
3026.01215.866
4020.90610.773
5016.9287.623
6013.8905.224
7010.9823.637
808.2702.388
905.5821.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
190.148102.329
279.15481.326
368.42873.268
462.96866.765
558.07262.039
655.35955.626
752.29351.251
849.80847.279
947.92843.442
1045.97240.652
1144.60238.400
1242.91935.986
1341.27534.206
1439.84932.470
1538.64830.617
1637.39729.189
1736.16027.570
1835.21125.976
1934.08424.620
2033.35123.584
2132.47822.608
2231.60721.553
2330.76320.835
2430.10619.815
2529.28919.194
2628.77918.669
2727.98517.888
2827.16717.283
2926.63616.598
3026.01215.866
3125.47015.216
3224.93714.574
3324.43314.081
3423.97613.606
3523.46812.972
3622.91612.481
3722.33012.003
3821.92811.568
3921.43811.220
4020.90610.773
4120.53310.352
4220.04810.048
4319.6659.796
4419.2839.458
4518.8909.160
4618.5168.835
4718.1018.546
4817.7058.179
4917.3577.908
5016.9287.623
5116.6117.369
5216.2957.121
5315.9856.838
5415.6126.574
5515.3376.313
5615.0496.006
5714.7595.829
5814.3715.654
5914.1265.465
6013.8905.224
6113.5844.989
6213.2764.823
6312.9174.670
6412.6254.487
6512.3774.348
6612.1044.208
6711.7974.080
6811.5273.917
6911.2553.753
7010.9823.637
7110.7533.483
7210.4413.362
7310.1523.223
749.9123.102
759.6562.971
769.4202.856
779.0362.734
788.7932.624
798.5782.520
808.2702.388
818.0132.267
827.7522.155
837.3972.031
847.1741.931
856.9251.845
866.7081.733
876.4091.621
886.1301.534
895.8911.431
905.5821.322
915.2691.223
924.9801.110
934.6400.995
944.2500.862
953.9490.771
963.5390.672
973.0970.536
982.6870.428
991.9840.312


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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