Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Oct5.7891.3786.5240.0881.22970.515
Oct-Nov11.5113.7657.9810.1232.73682.350
Oct-Dec16.1198.8079.0370.1239.23485.524

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.81444.990
2010.74326.710
307.95017.399
406.00111.128
504.6817.373
603.6774.675
702.7863.015
801.9771.809
901.1550.881

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
141.47797.889
232.59980.803
327.74474.115
423.77068.627
521.59464.570
619.83658.944
718.60855.005
817.42151.340
916.53747.703
1015.81444.990
1115.05742.753
1214.44740.302
1313.92738.458
1413.38436.627
1513.02234.636
1612.49433.074
1712.11931.274
1811.63229.472
1911.09727.915
2010.74326.710
2110.38125.564
2210.02724.313
239.68923.455
249.38022.228
259.16721.475
268.90620.837
278.63419.883
288.38019.143
298.13818.301
307.95017.399
317.73216.596
327.50615.803
337.25515.194
347.03014.607
356.83013.825
366.67313.219
376.50912.632
386.32512.099
396.16011.673
406.00111.128
415.87510.618
425.71810.250
435.5719.946
445.4399.540
455.3309.184
465.2108.797
475.0628.455
484.9088.023
494.8087.706
504.6817.373
514.5657.080
524.4616.794
534.3466.471
544.2576.171
554.1405.877
564.0525.534
573.9645.338
583.8485.144
593.7754.938
603.6774.675
613.5954.423
623.4894.244
633.3884.083
643.2973.889
653.2003.743
663.1423.598
673.0533.466
682.9563.298
692.8813.132
702.7863.015
712.7272.861
722.6482.741
732.5592.604
742.4842.485
752.4032.358
762.3032.248
772.2252.132
782.1422.028
792.0611.931
801.9771.809
811.8831.698
821.8191.597
831.7411.486
841.6671.397
851.5581.322
861.4921.226
871.3961.130
881.3211.056
891.2340.971
901.1550.881
911.0780.802
920.9620.713
930.8400.624
940.7680.524
950.6820.458
960.5620.387
970.4490.294
980.3110.224
990.1620.153


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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