Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan2.8271.4100.7900.0050.7561.410
Jan-Feb6.0108.3522.9060.0853.0218.352
Jan-Mar11.07457.8835.1100.2739.50357.883

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1017.06924.887
2011.33615.103
308.13110.343
406.0287.085
504.3815.032
603.2943.455
702.3772.407
801.5201.580
900.7520.874

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
138.88056.328
233.04145.912
328.60741.873
426.14038.585
523.39736.174
621.71232.864
720.28530.575
818.83328.470
917.86026.408
1017.06924.887
1116.32623.647
1215.70422.302
1315.08721.300
1414.54520.313
1513.93619.249
1613.33918.421
1712.68217.474
1812.17216.533
1911.74415.725
2011.33615.103
2110.99814.513
2210.58913.872
2310.16113.433
249.80512.806
259.50012.422
269.21112.097
278.90511.611
288.57511.234
298.34510.804
308.13110.343
317.9209.932
327.7059.525
337.4889.211
347.3068.908
357.0758.502
366.8398.187
376.6327.879
386.4367.600
396.2267.375
406.0287.085
415.8066.813
425.6176.615
435.4266.452
445.2696.231
455.1196.038
464.9625.825
474.8145.637
484.6725.397
494.5115.220
504.3815.032
514.2664.866
524.1594.704
534.0404.518
543.9514.344
553.8124.173
563.6973.970
573.6013.854
583.4873.738
593.3973.614
603.2943.455
613.1893.300
623.0933.190
632.9973.090
642.8702.969
652.7742.877
662.6932.784
672.6132.700
682.5252.592
692.4462.483
702.3772.407
712.2952.305
722.2192.225
732.1332.133
742.0402.053
751.9451.966
761.8391.890
771.7511.809
781.6611.736
791.5991.668
801.5201.580
811.4551.500
821.3881.426
831.3271.344
841.2361.277
851.1391.221
861.0611.147
870.9951.072
880.9091.014
890.8250.947
900.7520.874
910.6850.808
920.6220.734
930.5590.658
940.4830.570
950.3800.510
960.2880.444
970.1900.354
980.0720.282
990.0000.206


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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