Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug6.3772.2141.4170.1471.38594.840
Aug-Sep11.4473.98916.3560.3742.489130.358
Aug-Oct17.19610.51318.7030.9274.356166.500

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1030.09740.919
2020.64722.793
3015.51715.423
4012.04610.675
509.4257.718
607.3775.425
705.7133.887
804.1352.633
902.5561.524

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
167.589151.780
253.507104.795
347.19089.174
443.43377.805
539.75269.876
636.69460.366
734.29754.288
832.74949.025
931.17244.242
1030.09740.919
1128.93238.328
1227.38235.643
1326.16033.695
1425.09931.813
1524.08929.865
1623.38528.406
1722.75326.742
1822.00125.135
1921.25423.799
2020.64722.793
2119.89721.848
2219.20220.795
2318.69720.140
2418.13819.156
2517.66518.573
2617.24418.078
2716.87717.321
2816.49816.742
2915.97816.118
3015.51715.423
3115.10514.821
3214.63914.206
3314.21913.747
3413.91613.324
3513.61712.718
3613.20312.270
3712.88011.821
3812.55811.421
3912.32211.092
4012.04610.675
4111.68310.280
4211.3979.999
4311.1059.759
4410.8669.445
4510.6199.168
4610.3888.857
4710.1268.593
489.8858.247
499.6477.987
509.4257.718
519.1437.479
528.9047.249
538.7006.971
548.5276.729
558.2936.467
568.0816.184
577.9006.014
587.7435.843
597.5775.665
607.3775.425
617.1895.204
627.0325.045
636.8564.895
646.6614.721
656.5064.585
666.3464.448
676.1524.323
685.9784.162
695.8154.001
705.7133.887
715.5823.734
725.4053.614
735.2733.475
745.0853.354
754.9103.223
764.7483.107
774.5842.984
784.4572.873
794.3092.768
804.1352.633
813.9232.510
823.7642.395
833.6252.268
843.4672.164
853.2752.075
863.1451.958
872.9951.841
882.8331.749
892.6851.641
902.5561.524
912.3861.418
922.1801.297
932.0051.173
941.8381.027
951.6780.927
961.4940.816
971.3010.662
981.0300.538
990.6490.402


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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