Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep5.0701.77514.9390.4131.10535.518
Sep-Oct10.8198.29917.2860.5572.97171.660
Sep-Nov15.3339.75619.7320.5744.62389.779

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.75340.652
2013.98423.584
3010.75815.866
408.39710.773
506.8047.623
605.4265.224
704.2623.637
803.1822.388
902.0631.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
147.018102.329
237.26681.326
332.89173.268
429.35766.765
526.58062.039
624.73555.626
723.06251.251
821.86947.279
920.60443.442
1019.75340.652
1118.97738.400
1218.11935.986
1317.47034.206
1416.95532.470
1516.30330.617
1615.83329.189
1715.26427.570
1814.77125.976
1914.41424.620
2013.98423.584
2113.56522.608
2213.32521.553
2312.90520.835
2412.64419.815
2512.28819.194
2611.96718.669
2711.61017.888
2811.32517.283
2910.98516.598
3010.75815.866
3110.47815.216
3210.18114.574
339.92414.081
349.64313.606
359.43312.972
369.17612.481
378.96512.003
388.74611.568
398.58911.220
408.39710.773
418.23210.352
428.07010.048
437.9099.796
447.7329.458
457.5619.160
467.3988.835
477.2168.546
487.0668.179
496.9137.908
506.8047.623
516.6717.369
526.5487.121
536.3686.838
546.2366.574
556.0746.313
565.9176.006
575.8075.829
585.6905.654
595.5575.465
605.4265.224
615.3244.989
625.2054.823
635.0624.670
644.9444.487
654.8394.348
664.7284.208
674.6054.080
684.5043.917
694.3783.753
704.2623.637
714.1173.483
724.0143.362
733.9113.223
743.8153.102
753.7032.971
763.6092.856
773.5132.734
783.4102.624
793.2842.520
803.1822.388
813.0472.267
822.9302.155
832.8092.031
842.6901.931
852.5821.845
862.4771.733
872.3631.621
882.2651.534
892.1541.431
902.0631.322
911.9641.223
921.7891.110
931.6560.995
941.5060.862
951.3660.771
961.2450.672
971.0550.536
980.8740.428
990.6160.312


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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