Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


Return to catchment list
Product list for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1989) (GL)
Mar5.0022.2041.2020.0386.60022.474
Mar-Apr10.4943.2104.9750.0387.609112.686
Mar-May14.4503.9025.7160.0658.307124.324

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1015.01235.590
208.38418.166
305.45411.474
403.7467.409
502.5615.032
601.8503.302
701.2482.203
800.7721.371
900.3570.694

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
154.457127.005
240.15792.412
332.66979.772
427.39769.963
523.80863.103
621.09454.211
719.60248.449
817.88143.443
916.21438.820
1015.01235.590
1113.80833.064
1212.79430.436
1312.00028.550
1411.34926.752
1510.71724.878
1610.10023.464
179.69521.894
189.22620.380
198.76119.117
208.38418.166
217.91617.283
227.66416.341
237.30615.706
247.03314.816
256.75714.278
266.51513.828
276.26813.163
286.04712.654
295.69512.081
305.45411.474
315.26710.940
325.06510.417
334.84210.018
344.6509.637
354.5059.131
364.3658.741
374.1788.365
384.0138.026
393.8657.755
403.7467.409
413.6197.085
423.4606.852
433.3406.660
443.2036.403
453.0656.179
462.9275.934
472.8345.718
482.7495.444
492.6415.243
502.5615.032
512.4794.846
522.3994.664
532.3004.458
542.2234.267
552.1574.078
562.0933.858
572.0253.731
581.9653.606
591.9073.472
601.8503.302
611.7873.137
621.7233.020
631.6492.914
641.5872.786
651.5092.690
661.4572.593
671.4022.505
681.3552.393
691.3102.281
701.2482.203
711.1932.098
721.1352.017
731.0901.923
741.0411.842
750.9991.755
760.9481.679
770.8941.598
780.8521.525
790.8141.457
800.7721.371
810.7251.292
820.6861.220
830.6531.141
840.6091.076
850.5691.022
860.5130.951
870.4720.880
880.4290.826
890.3940.762
900.3570.694
910.3180.634
920.2800.565
930.2390.496
940.1990.417
950.1540.364
960.1190.306
970.0770.228
980.0350.168
990.0000.105


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence