Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Apr5.4921.0062.4340.0001.00919.834
Apr-May9.4481.6983.1750.0271.70727.629
Apr-Jun16.7187.5905.1320.0904.671122.355

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.71242.000
2017.23621.518
3011.93013.603
408.8188.797
506.5855.980
604.7783.922
703.5212.625
802.3081.635
901.1340.829

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
174.043147.597
255.625108.017
347.60393.361
442.43082.086
539.12073.902
635.81563.739
732.72657.062
830.37051.181
928.47945.777
1026.71242.000
1125.30939.048
1224.14035.986
1323.35933.767
1422.00231.629
1521.08829.422
1620.15127.776
1719.33525.906
1818.64724.112
1917.90522.629
2017.23621.518
2116.54020.481
2215.97619.331
2315.30718.620
2414.66417.557
2514.23616.932
2613.70516.402
2713.13015.598
2812.67714.985
2912.25414.329
3011.93013.603
3111.57512.978
3211.32212.344
3311.00411.873
3410.73211.442
3510.39710.829
3610.10010.378
379.7839.929
389.4949.532
399.1769.207
408.8188.797
418.6458.412
428.4678.140
438.1977.908
447.8607.606
457.6477.341
467.4507.045
477.2246.796
486.9936.471
496.8026.228
506.5855.980
516.3835.759
526.1875.548
535.9825.295
545.8015.076
555.6194.840
565.4314.588
575.2774.438
585.1274.287
594.9434.131
604.7783.922
614.6663.731
624.5473.594
634.4173.466
644.3083.318
654.1743.203
664.0563.089
673.9102.984
683.7722.851
693.6332.718
703.5212.625
713.4022.500
723.2842.403
733.1572.292
743.0252.196
752.9152.092
762.7522.001
772.6331.905
782.5361.818
792.4271.738
802.3081.635
812.1941.541
822.0421.455
831.9111.361
841.8091.284
851.7061.219
861.5861.135
871.4851.051
881.3470.985
891.2290.910
901.1340.829
911.0370.756
920.9190.675
930.7780.592
940.6760.498
950.5440.434
960.4200.365
970.2830.273
980.1540.201
990.0000.126


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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