Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
May3.9560.6920.7410.0270.6987.796
May-Jun11.2266.5842.6980.0903.663102.521
May-Jul17.3729.3473.7500.1915.502151.599

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1032.09840.003
2022.18121.519
3016.52614.190
4012.7149.579
509.8266.774
607.7864.647
706.0503.254
804.4052.146
902.6841.196

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
181.608149.053
263.933104.576
355.98389.175
448.88077.771
545.06369.731
641.06760.012
738.30453.768
836.04048.350
934.12843.423
1032.09840.003
1130.82337.341
1229.62334.584
1328.22032.589
1427.19630.665
1526.26328.679
1625.40427.194
1724.60825.505
1823.70023.879
1922.91622.532
2022.18121.519
2121.31120.571
2220.79619.516
2320.01118.861
2419.37017.881
2518.80817.302
2618.35616.810
2717.80416.061
2817.39215.488
2916.97914.874
3016.52614.190
3116.04913.600
3215.63412.998
3315.17012.550
3414.76012.138
3514.39311.550
3614.10711.116
3713.76310.682
3813.47410.296
3913.0449.979
4012.7149.579
4112.3759.201
4212.0728.933
4311.7548.704
4411.4628.405
4511.2148.142
4610.8757.847
4710.6047.598
4810.3107.271
4910.0347.026
509.8266.774
519.6086.550
529.3886.334
539.1886.076
549.0085.850
558.8085.607
568.6155.345
578.3385.188
588.1435.031
597.9734.867
607.7864.647
617.5934.445
627.4184.300
637.1734.164
646.9954.005
656.8323.882
666.6633.758
676.4803.645
686.3123.501
696.1553.356
706.0503.254
715.8763.117
725.7143.010
735.5202.887
745.3652.780
755.1922.663
764.9882.562
774.8752.453
784.7112.355
794.5742.264
804.4052.146
814.2572.039
824.1301.939
833.9291.829
843.7301.740
853.5541.664
863.3891.564
873.2131.464
883.0051.386
892.8801.294
902.6841.196
912.4971.108
922.3601.007
932.1680.904
941.9860.784
951.6880.703
961.4690.613
971.2840.491
980.9980.393
990.7100.288


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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