Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jul6.1472.7630.1110.1011.8408.475
Jul-Aug12.4184.1809.4420.2483.229103.314
Jul-Sep17.69819.11915.0120.4755.756138.832

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1018.51543.211
2013.43024.379
3010.56816.501
408.51811.380
506.9198.198
605.6615.740
704.5144.085
803.3862.751
902.2161.579

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.590134.582
233.65299.954
329.68187.429
426.52777.730
524.53170.940
622.48162.100
721.13556.328
820.04751.269
919.21246.547
1018.51543.211
1117.77340.578
1217.10037.810
1316.56235.805
1415.91533.876
1515.47231.847
1614.94630.301
1714.48028.568
1814.11326.881
1913.72925.459
2013.43024.379
2113.09223.369
2212.73122.282
2312.43221.544
2412.13620.502
2511.79519.869
2611.54519.335
2711.27518.543
2811.06917.931
2910.80617.239
3010.56816.501
3110.32215.846
3210.09915.201
339.90414.705
349.67014.227
359.46213.591
369.27013.097
379.07012.617
388.86112.180
398.67211.830
408.51811.380
418.36510.957
428.22310.651
438.03910.397
447.85410.056
457.7129.755
467.5259.427
477.3419.135
487.1838.763
497.0398.488
506.9198.198
516.7837.940
526.6447.687
536.5267.399
546.3957.129
556.2626.862
566.1226.547
575.9856.365
585.8766.184
595.7695.990
605.6615.740
615.5365.498
625.4255.325
635.3005.167
645.1734.976
655.0824.830
665.0124.684
674.8624.550
684.7494.379
694.6304.206
704.5144.085
714.4113.922
724.2743.794
734.1633.646
744.0443.517
753.9393.377
763.8233.255
773.7063.124
783.5783.005
793.4772.894
803.3862.751
813.3002.620
823.2032.499
833.1202.364
842.9652.254
852.8692.160
862.7412.037
872.6231.913
882.4901.816
892.3611.702
902.2161.579
912.0611.468
921.8961.341
931.7471.210
941.5981.058
951.4450.953
961.2620.837
971.0280.677
980.8030.548
990.5540.408


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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