Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Jan2.9540.9000.0530.0050.5825.002
Jan-Feb5.9462.531NA0.0851.59644.118
Jan-Mar10.0443.068NA0.2732.23451.449

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.28824.887
208.43915.103
305.98210.343
404.3337.085
503.1135.032
602.2913.455
701.6172.407
801.0371.580
900.4340.874

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
132.73056.328
227.30945.912
323.63241.873
420.99238.585
518.54136.174
616.90532.864
715.71230.575
814.58728.470
913.96226.408
1013.28824.887
1112.46023.647
1212.06722.302
1311.47821.300
1411.05920.313
1510.50219.249
1610.05918.421
179.54217.474
189.18216.533
198.77015.725
208.43915.103
218.12314.513
227.81713.872
237.54813.433
247.28012.806
256.98212.422
266.71912.097
276.52111.611
286.32911.234
296.15510.804
305.98210.343
315.7949.932
325.6479.525
335.4879.211
345.2968.908
355.1338.502
364.9588.187
374.8117.879
384.6677.600
394.4957.375
404.3337.085
414.1876.813
424.0506.615
433.9316.452
443.8146.231
453.6866.038
463.5795.825
473.4385.637
483.3075.397
493.2075.220
503.1135.032
513.0324.866
522.9614.704
532.8944.518
542.7894.344
552.6824.173
562.6053.970
572.5283.854
582.4433.738
592.3603.614
602.2913.455
612.2053.300
622.1453.190
632.0663.090
641.9892.969
651.9282.877
661.8552.784
671.7942.700
681.7302.592
691.6692.483
701.6172.407
711.5502.305
721.4892.225
731.4322.133
741.3762.053
751.3031.966
761.2421.890
771.1831.809
781.1221.736
791.0781.668
801.0371.580
810.9761.500
820.9161.426
830.8451.344
840.7911.277
850.7311.221
860.6761.147
870.6261.072
880.5631.014
890.5010.947
900.4340.874
910.3970.808
920.3550.734
930.3080.658
940.2450.570
950.1870.510
960.1050.444
970.0270.354
980.0000.282
990.0000.206


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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