Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Jan2.8230.0614.4490.0050.2915.002
Jan-Feb5.8384.08211.0700.0851.70044.118
Jan-Mar9.8775.62415.7510.2732.37251.449

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.29224.887
2036.31815.103
3029.45210.343
4024.3197.085
5019.6415.032
6015.8363.455
7012.2902.407
808.6761.580
904.7740.874

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
181.50656.328
270.64745.912
364.14641.873
459.50038.585
555.32736.174
653.07132.864
751.11530.575
849.53228.470
947.54326.408
1046.29224.887
1145.18923.647
1244.00622.302
1342.66621.300
1441.59020.313
1540.62019.249
1639.66518.421
1739.07117.474
1838.05916.533
1937.00315.725
2036.31815.103
2135.63414.513
2234.74013.872
2333.96913.433
2433.18812.806
2532.65512.422
2632.09412.097
2731.52111.611
2830.83111.234
2930.10410.804
3029.45210.343
3128.8289.932
3228.3729.525
3327.8799.211
3427.3128.908
3526.8258.502
3626.2978.187
3725.8847.879
3825.3467.600
3924.8337.375
4024.3197.085
4123.7646.813
4223.2836.615
4322.8456.452
4422.4906.231
4521.9746.038
4621.5575.825
4721.0645.637
4820.6235.397
4920.1055.220
5019.6415.032
5119.3014.866
5218.7724.704
5318.3774.518
5418.0484.344
5517.7334.173
5617.2243.970
5716.9043.854
5816.5813.738
5916.2643.614
6015.8363.455
6115.4743.300
6215.0903.190
6314.7033.090
6414.3252.969
6513.9292.877
6613.5492.784
6713.1692.700
6812.8252.592
6912.4972.483
7012.2902.407
7111.8932.305
7211.5022.225
7311.1642.133
7410.7762.053
7510.3731.966
769.9851.890
779.6301.809
789.3081.736
798.9981.668
808.6761.580
818.2641.500
827.9211.426
837.5251.344
847.1431.277
856.7351.221
866.3681.147
875.9671.072
885.5591.014
895.1260.947
904.7740.874
914.4880.808
924.1380.734
933.8150.658
943.4910.570
953.0710.510
962.6860.444
972.1970.354
981.6060.282
991.1070.206


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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