Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry


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Historical and exceedance probability for Queanbeyan River at Tinderry ( Jan 2012 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (2005) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Jan2.8594.4491.4100.0050.6385.002
Jan-Feb5.95611.0708.3520.0852.66944.118
Jan-Mar10.01015.75157.8830.2733.75551.449

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.03824.887
2019.34615.103
3014.68910.343
4011.1667.085
508.4655.032
606.4643.455
704.7982.407
803.2321.580
901.7740.874

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.64256.328
245.72645.912
341.33341.873
437.61438.585
535.04936.174
632.85432.864
731.11130.575
829.42528.470
928.03526.408
1027.03824.887
1126.11523.647
1225.03622.302
1324.25321.300
1423.51220.313
1522.77719.249
1622.06118.421
1721.31417.474
1820.54116.533
1920.01215.725
2019.34615.103
2118.76014.513
2218.29913.872
2317.85713.433
2417.37012.806
2516.97012.422
2616.45612.097
2715.98711.611
2815.48511.234
2915.05910.804
3014.68910.343
3114.1279.932
3213.7689.525
3313.4029.211
3413.0048.908
3512.6608.502
3612.3958.187
3712.0677.879
3811.6657.600
3911.3967.375
4011.1667.085
4110.9086.813
4210.5766.615
4310.2976.452
4410.0216.231
459.6736.038
469.4175.825
479.1885.637
489.0005.397
498.7355.220
508.4655.032
518.2504.866
528.0224.704
537.8514.518
547.6624.344
557.4384.173
567.2223.970
577.0433.854
586.8283.738
596.6323.614
606.4643.455
616.2783.300
626.0913.190
635.9173.090
645.7532.969
655.6502.877
665.4482.784
675.2692.700
685.1192.592
694.9502.483
704.7982.407
714.6262.305
724.4812.225
734.3482.133
744.1932.053
754.0631.966
763.8791.890
773.7051.809
783.5281.736
793.3661.668
803.2321.580
813.0541.500
822.9031.426
832.7691.344
842.6301.277
852.4691.221
862.3531.147
872.1881.072
882.0271.014
891.9300.947
901.7740.874
911.6230.808
921.4910.734
931.3480.658
941.1830.570
951.0300.510
960.8710.444
970.6630.354
980.4530.282
990.2000.206


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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