Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1058.938
2033.201
3022.617
4015.749
5011.447
608.091
705.828
803.973
902.320

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1210.086
2147.111
3125.866
4110.283
599.352
686.167
777.698
870.333
963.617
1058.938
1155.283
1251.485
1348.725
1446.056
1543.288
1641.212
1738.841
1836.548
1934.640
2033.201
2131.848
2230.339
2329.400
2427.988
2527.151
2626.439
2725.351
2824.517
2923.619
3022.617
3121.749
3220.861
3320.197
3419.586
3518.711
3618.062
3717.411
3816.832
3916.354
4015.749
4115.176
4214.768
4314.419
4413.963
4513.560
4613.106
4712.723
4812.218
4911.839
5011.447
5111.098
5210.762
5310.356
5410.002
559.618
569.204
578.955
588.704
598.443
608.091
617.767
627.533
637.313
647.057
656.856
666.655
676.470
686.234
695.996
705.828
715.602
725.424
735.220
745.041
754.846
764.676
774.493
784.328
794.173
803.973
813.790
823.619
833.429
843.274
853.142
862.968
872.793
882.656
892.494
902.320
912.161
921.979
931.792
941.573
951.422
961.254
971.021
980.832
990.625


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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