Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1086.466174.353
2053.132111.763
3036.44176.061
4026.03349.632
5019.14632.906
6013.69920.650
709.60413.116
805.9947.705
902.9323.630

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1220.372341.873
2172.006288.298
3152.200267.274
4136.741249.978
5124.482237.158
6114.215219.306
7107.002206.735
8100.386194.967
992.108183.204
1086.466174.353
1181.721167.001
1277.817158.876
1374.728152.708
1470.992146.527
1566.750139.737
1664.140134.353
1761.472128.079
1858.419121.711
1955.440116.134
2053.132111.763
2151.317107.565
2249.269102.924
2347.58899.703
2445.98395.049
2544.45392.160
2642.71689.692
2740.82185.970
2839.42183.048
2937.93279.695
3036.44176.061
3135.15672.792
3234.19469.532
3332.92767.001
3432.00264.548
3530.86961.249
3629.71558.672
3728.85756.154
3827.79653.857
3926.84652.009
4026.03349.632
4125.26347.392
4224.46845.770
4323.86544.429
4423.16142.625
4522.30141.040
4621.66239.309
4721.04137.778
4820.40935.836
4919.77634.408
5019.14632.906
5118.59031.579
5217.96730.286
5317.39328.818
5416.90227.458
5516.35526.121
5615.83924.559
5715.20123.666
5814.79122.786
5914.28421.845
6013.69920.650
6113.06619.502
6212.66018.692
6312.25917.955
6411.90817.078
6511.49516.415
6611.15715.755
6710.78915.156
6810.36914.396
6910.02513.643
709.60413.116
719.18712.419
728.83411.877
738.33311.262
748.00110.730
757.65810.159
767.3659.665
777.0169.145
786.6098.680
796.2528.249
805.9947.705
815.7087.214
825.2716.765
834.9456.276
844.6635.883
854.3335.554
864.0405.129
873.7984.711
883.5124.389
893.2304.019
902.9323.630
912.6253.286
922.3522.904
932.0552.524
941.7232.099
951.3331.819
961.0211.521
970.6531.133
980.1680.843
990.0000.553


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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