Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


Return to catchment list
Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10143.974208.434
2094.520119.797
3067.66381.886
4050.55756.935
5038.64641.276
6029.60329.083
7022.05420.802
8015.01614.079
908.4058.110

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1366.601613.819
2289.029463.219
3256.592408.113
4223.318365.093
5206.831334.757
6190.196294.948
7173.682268.732
8163.716245.604
9151.498223.873
10143.974208.434
11137.468196.194
12130.892183.277
13127.061173.887
14120.707164.825
15115.574155.260
16110.790147.956
17106.881139.746
18102.159131.727
1997.782124.953
2094.520119.797
2190.768114.964
2287.834109.755
2384.629106.216
2481.629101.208
2578.93998.158
2676.22995.587
2774.22091.765
2872.07688.810
2969.86185.463
3067.66381.886
3165.78578.710
3264.17675.575
3362.44573.163
3460.92470.840
3559.23567.738
3657.46465.328
3755.73662.984
3854.05160.851
3952.02259.137
4050.55756.935
4149.12854.860
4247.80253.356
4346.55552.111
4445.53150.433
4544.23348.956
4643.06247.337
4741.86145.899
4840.82344.066
4939.69942.711
5038.64641.276
5137.44740.002
5236.48338.752
5335.67737.321
5434.70035.985
5533.72434.660
5632.89433.095
5732.20232.191
5831.46831.293
5930.60330.325
6029.60329.083
6128.76127.874
6228.02527.011
6327.33326.220
6426.39525.267
6525.52624.539
6624.75923.808
6724.08623.136
6823.43422.277
6922.67721.412
7022.05420.802
7121.40019.982
7220.67619.339
7319.94718.598
7419.26217.949
7518.65317.243
7617.88116.624
7717.24815.963
7816.43815.365
7915.77114.802
8015.01614.079
8114.34413.416
8213.73812.798
8313.12012.114
8412.45511.553
8511.75511.076
8611.01110.449
8710.3719.817
889.7419.321
898.9868.739
908.4058.110
917.8097.538
927.2166.884
936.6246.211
945.9465.425
955.0824.883
964.2194.282
973.1593.449
982.2192.774
990.8662.038


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence