Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1051.857146.028
2033.680101.225
3024.41373.513
4017.69350.632
5013.04334.570
609.64321.969
706.87613.962
803.9608.159
901.2613.811

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1138.400261.455
2106.378224.683
390.974210.240
479.852198.348
571.247189.523
666.705177.215
761.768168.528
858.471160.376
954.891152.201
1051.857146.028
1148.759140.881
1246.615135.171
1344.703130.816
1442.872126.432
1541.157121.589
1639.924117.726
1738.455113.195
1836.817108.559
1935.303104.462
2033.680101.225
2132.68698.091
2231.39794.595
2330.51692.148
2429.51788.579
2528.59486.342
2627.60884.416
2726.71381.486
2826.04779.163
2925.28276.468
3024.41373.513
3123.66170.821
3222.83668.101
3322.12765.966
3421.41863.873
3520.76461.024
3620.01158.768
3719.37056.538
3818.83154.480
3918.30352.807
4017.69350.632
4117.17948.560
4216.53747.044
4316.10045.781
4415.60144.069
4515.24442.551
4614.71440.880
4714.29339.390
4813.76137.482
4913.37436.068
5013.04334.570
5112.64433.237
5212.18331.931
5311.82430.438
5411.53929.047
5511.21427.672
5610.90326.056
5710.57425.127
5810.25524.209
599.94023.224
609.64321.969
619.34620.758
628.95419.901
638.69619.121
648.47818.189
658.14817.484
667.86516.782
677.59516.142
687.32215.331
697.10314.525
706.87613.962
716.61113.215
726.33412.634
736.04611.975
745.67611.404
755.41310.791
765.17210.262
774.8939.704
784.6219.205
794.3318.743
803.9608.159
813.6987.633
823.4447.152
833.1476.629
842.7856.209
852.4905.858
862.2185.404
871.9834.959
881.7404.616
891.5574.224
901.2613.811
911.0123.446
920.7303.042
930.4462.642
940.1962.195
950.0001.902
960.0001.592
970.0001.189
980.0000.889
990.0000.592


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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