Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1055.235174.353
2031.317111.763
3020.54476.061
4014.33749.632
5010.10632.906
607.03620.650
704.66213.116
802.6677.705
901.0553.630

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1170.635341.873
2130.082288.298
3110.403267.274
498.658249.978
586.351237.158
677.339219.306
770.711206.735
865.528194.967
959.537183.204
1055.235174.353
1151.330167.001
1248.141158.876
1345.479152.708
1443.135146.527
1540.578139.737
1638.536134.353
1736.744128.079
1834.990121.711
1932.777116.134
2031.317111.763
2129.821107.565
2228.639102.924
2327.32199.703
2426.14895.049
2524.75692.160
2623.88289.692
2723.04085.970
2822.22283.048
2921.43479.695
3020.54476.061
3119.68872.792
3218.84769.532
3318.05167.001
3417.39164.548
3516.74661.249
3616.33358.672
3715.88556.154
3815.27253.857
3914.77052.009
4014.33749.632
4113.80247.392
4213.45145.770
4312.97544.429
4412.46942.625
4512.09241.040
4611.68139.309
4711.23237.778
4810.90535.836
4910.46434.408
5010.10632.906
519.81931.579
529.38430.286
539.05828.818
548.73827.458
558.41326.121
568.15624.559
577.82123.666
587.53022.786
597.35721.845
607.03620.650
616.79219.502
626.54618.692
636.26717.955
646.00017.078
655.73216.415
665.50115.755
675.25615.156
685.05814.396
694.87413.643
704.66213.116
714.46712.419
724.27311.877
734.10411.262
743.90010.730
753.71910.159
763.5129.665
773.2589.145
783.0748.680
792.8898.249
802.6677.705
812.4737.214
822.3176.765
832.1686.276
841.9905.883
851.8115.554
861.6445.129
871.5264.711
881.3564.389
891.2234.019
901.0553.630
910.9113.286
920.7492.904
930.5782.524
940.4282.099
950.2551.819
960.0511.521
970.0001.133
980.0000.843
990.0000.553


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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