Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


Return to catchment list
Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Namoi River at North Cuerindi ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1014.67162.561
207.84932.726
305.05021.135
403.32713.982
502.3229.712
601.5656.534
701.0304.491
800.5742.899
900.1881.568

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
166.888234.341
243.517166.062
334.987141.829
427.820123.670
524.228110.766
621.55895.067
719.44784.939
817.57876.132
916.01968.121
1014.67162.561
1113.44058.236
1212.54053.765
1311.71650.533
1411.07947.422
1510.28444.215
169.77041.823
179.18139.107
188.67036.499
198.25034.344
207.84932.726
217.47031.215
227.06929.537
236.76028.498
246.44926.945
256.12426.029
265.86225.253
275.65124.072
285.42423.171
295.21422.206
305.05021.135
314.80420.212
324.60719.273
334.44418.575
344.26017.934
354.08317.023
363.90016.351
373.73315.679
383.58915.086
393.46514.598
403.32713.982
413.21013.402
423.11612.992
432.98512.642
442.89012.186
452.79011.785
462.68311.336
472.57010.958
482.48710.463
492.40810.093
502.3229.712
512.2339.375
522.1429.051
532.0538.662
541.9948.325
551.9127.960
561.8467.570
571.7737.337
581.7067.103
591.6266.860
601.5656.534
611.5056.236
621.4416.021
631.3935.821
641.3295.588
651.2705.408
661.2155.227
671.1665.061
681.1194.850
691.0764.639
701.0304.491
710.9774.293
720.9264.138
730.8843.960
740.8433.805
750.8073.638
760.7593.492
770.7103.337
780.6653.197
790.6183.066
800.5742.899
810.5292.747
820.4882.606
830.4462.450
840.4152.324
850.3762.218
860.3452.078
870.3061.939
880.2691.830
890.2211.703
900.1881.568
910.1551.446
920.1161.308
930.0741.167
940.0351.006
950.0000.896
960.0000.776
970.0000.614
980.0000.486
990.0000.350


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence