Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile11.47910.792
Median23.67834.570
Mean36.24257.354
75% Quartile47.29186.341
Interquartile Range35.81275.548

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1201.517261.455
2150.741224.683
3133.976210.240
4118.741198.348
5111.436189.523
6103.734177.215
797.551168.528
891.469160.376
985.744152.201
1081.292146.028
1176.765140.881
1274.049135.171
1370.624130.816
1468.031126.432
1565.610121.589
1662.914117.726
1761.019113.195
1859.174108.559
1956.999104.462
2055.398101.225
2153.59398.091
2251.88294.595
2350.09492.148
2448.60588.579
2547.29986.342
2646.26084.416
2745.20581.486
2843.89079.163
2942.57176.468
3041.10673.513
3139.68370.821
3238.39568.101
3337.47165.966
3436.45263.873
3535.31761.024
3634.31558.768
3733.62056.538
3832.92454.480
3931.98652.807
4031.03450.632
4130.20548.560
4229.30047.044
4328.51345.781
4427.68044.069
4526.83242.551
4626.20040.880
4725.61039.390
4825.02437.482
4924.17536.068
5023.67834.570
5123.07533.237
5222.39831.931
5321.80830.438
5421.29429.047
5520.85227.672
5620.15026.056
5719.66425.127
5819.13124.209
5918.53023.224
6017.98521.969
6117.53720.758
6217.09819.901
6316.61919.121
6416.13418.189
6515.66217.484
6615.25616.782
6714.87116.142
6814.37115.331
6914.02814.525
7013.47713.962
7113.09713.215
7212.67812.634
7312.20111.975
7411.80611.404
7511.47410.791
7611.04410.262
7710.4589.704
789.9629.205
799.4938.743
809.0768.159
818.4897.633
827.9877.152
837.4966.629
847.0626.209
856.6255.858
866.1705.404
875.7494.959
885.3004.616
894.8564.224
904.4503.811
914.0363.446
923.6313.042
933.0842.642
942.5362.195
951.9961.902
961.4591.592
970.8631.189
980.1330.889
990.0000.592


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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