Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Product list for Namoi River at North Cuerindi


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Probability distribution for Namoi River at North Cuerindi(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile7.154
Median21.843
Mean53.789
75% Quartile64.906
Interquartile Range57.753

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1381.691
2305.292
3275.601
4251.400
5233.647
6209.288
7192.466
8177.035
9161.983
10150.944
11141.984
12132.329
13125.186
14118.196
15110.724
16104.958
1798.423
1891.997
1986.540
2082.377
2178.471
2274.259
2371.400
2467.361
2564.908
2662.843
2759.784
2857.428
2954.771
3051.947
3149.454
3247.009
3345.141
3443.352
3540.980
3639.152
3737.387
3835.794
3934.522
4032.901
4131.387
4230.298
4329.402
4428.203
4527.155
4626.016
4725.013
4823.745
4922.817
5021.843
5120.985
5220.151
5319.205
5418.330
5517.471
5616.468
5715.894
5815.329
5914.725
6013.958
6113.220
6212.698
6312.224
6411.658
6511.230
6610.804
6710.416
689.923
699.434
709.091
718.636
728.282
737.879
747.529
757.153
766.827
776.483
786.174
795.887
805.523
815.194
824.891
834.561
844.294
854.070
863.779
873.492
883.270
893.013
902.741
912.500
922.230
931.959
941.653
951.449
961.231
970.942
980.721
990.497


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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